Find out more at www.TheUnthinkable.com I How to survive a disaster

Having spent many years writing about disasters and interviewing survivors, I have noticed a certain irony: disaster myths are often worse than reality. It’s as if we try to mentally brace ourselves for disasters by expecting the grimmest miseries humankind can imagine. Of course, disasters are by definition atrocious. But not always in the ways that we expect. Usually, we behave more reasonably than we anticipate we will--which is not to say we can’t do better.

1. Plane Crashes are Fatal

Even serious plane crashes more survivable than you might think. Of all passengers involved in serious accidents between 1983 and 2000, 56% survived. ("Serious" is defined by the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board as accidents involving fire, severe injury, and substantial aircraft damage.)

What matters most is not where you sit or whether you’ve said your prayers, but how quickly you can get out. The research shows that people who have read those annoying safety briefing cards from the seatback pocket are less likely to get hurt in an emergency. They have given their brain something to work with in advance.

If you wait until the plane is going down, it’s probably too late. The brain, when it is frightened, is very poor at processing new information. Unbuckling the aeroplane seatbelt becomes suddenly very challenging. So figuring out how to open the overwing exit hatch is akin to doing quantum physics. The more rehearsal you’ve given your brain in advance (as with sports, public speaking or any other performance under stress), the better your brain will do.

2. Panic

The wild panic depicted in disaster movies is actually very rare. Most of the time, people become docile and obedient in disasters. We crave information and companionship most of all.

After the 7/7 terrorist bombings on the London transit system in 2005, some victims actually resisted leaving the tube station.

“I needed the [others] for comfort,” one survivor explained to U.K. psychologist John Drury. “I felt better knowing that I was surrounded by people.”

In aeroplanes about to make a crash landing, the overriding soundtrack is silence. People look out the window, pray or (increasingly) try to make calls on their mobile phones.

There are good evolutionary reasons for this. Becoming hysterical in the face of a dire threat does not tend to lead to survival. Unfortunately, most emergency plans are written with the expectation that people will panic.

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