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  There has never been a time when the book trade has not had something to moan about. Authors have always felt hard done by while publishers are second only to farmers in their predilection for impending disaster. Twenty years ago, when I was putting together the first edition of The Writer’s Handbook, the worry was the power of the publishing conglomerates as they gobbled up their smaller competitors, spitting out those imprints that failed to impress the money men.

  Today it is the booksellers who are cause for concern. With competition from supermarkets, Amazon grabbing up to 12 per cent of the market online and the merger of Waterstone’s and Ottakar’s to create a dominant force in high-street retailing, the fear is of the decline of the independent bookshop. Seventy-nine of them closed in the past year alone. Echoing across the years are the siren voices bewailing the sacrifice of quality writing to the demands of the mass market and the unholy grail of bestsellerdom.

  The optimists point to the increase in the number of titles appearing each year. The total is around 160,000 — double what it was 20 years ago. And there is the argument that while fly-by-night books such as The Da Vinci Code (designated by one critic as a primer on how not to write an English sentence) have always had their brief moment of commercial glory, true writing talent is blessed with survival. Of the young novelists tipped for stardom in the Eighties, such as Martin Amis, A. N. Wilson and Rose Tremain, nearly all are now in the front line of literary excellence and with impressive sales to show for it.

  So where is the problem? Pessimists caution against putting too much trust in bald figures. Yes, more books were published last year than ever before, but the bulk of them sold only a few hundred copies. Moreover, if the statistics are broken down, it’s clear that the output of new work has barely shifted since The Writer’s Handbook made its first appearance. There is little to suggest that the current crop of young writers of talent will get the same breaks as those of 20 years ago.

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  It is easy to see why. Traditionally, publishers offered a mixed bag of titles in which books with strong selling potential kept company with the work of new writers. The booksellers gave shelf space to new novels and serious nonfiction, knowing that the profits would come from books with big names attached. This cosy relationship crumbled when fixed prices were removed and high-street shops began fighting for survival against supermarkets and the internet. The squeeze on mid-list books, including first novels, tightened with every turn of the marketing screw. When the supermarkets promoted bargain paperbacks, Amazon cut its prices and bookshops sliced stock to make more room for bestsellers. Meanwhile publishers were forced to give better terms to retailers. Turning away authors who couldn’t earn an immediate return was a way to protect the bottom line.

  So we have the great paradox of modern publishing. While there are more books published than ever before, it is more difficult to get published than ever before. “The rise of supermarket books and digital delivery is rapid. Some publishers and authors will no longer be able to earn their living in this changed world,” says Tim Hely Hutchinson, chief of the Hodder Headline, Orion, Little Brown and Octopus publishing groups.

  This is supported by evidence of publishers rejecting new writing that does not have a celebrity attached while scaling down the money paid to mid-list authors to a level where there is barely an incentive for them to get out of bed. “If your book fits a promotional slot you’re likely to end up with a deal worth having. Otherwise, forget it,” says Jonathan Lloyd, of the literary agency Curtis Brown.

  It could be that the big players are distorting a market that appreciates quality writing. If they are giving attention only to the top sellers, it is because they have massive overheads. But that is not to say that books with modest sales potential cannot be produced. The possibilities were tested recently by Macmillan (publisher of The Writer’s Handbook and one of the big six in UK publishing) with a low-cost imprint aimed at attracting new writers. This “ streamlined model” — standard format, minimal editing, no advances — was dismissed by some as sharp practice, but it is hard to see what is wrong in giving aspiring authors a helping hand that might otherwise be denied them. Though no advances are paid, they do get a 20 per cent royalty, as against the standard 10 per cent. If their books sell they move on to heavyweight deals.

  It is what smaller independent publishers have been doing all along. Take Tindal Street Press in Birmingham, which came to national attention three years ago when Clare Morrall’s Astonishing Splashes of Colour was shortlisted for the Booker Prize. Then there is Canongate Books in Edinburgh, declared publisher of the year at the 2002 British Book Awards. In nonfiction, Profile and Piatkus turn out books of quality that the bigger publishers would have rejected as marginal profit earners.

  The changes in publishing and bookselling over 20 years have been commercially led. Popular taste, then as now, has favoured the easy read: today it is The Da Vinci Code. But bestsellers are not necessarily rubbish: Ian Rankin and Bill Bryson deserve their multimillion sales, because they are good writers. Reading will remain a favourite pastime. And readers need writers. Even if content, style and means of delivery change, the show will go on.

  Barry Turner is the editor of, The Writer’s Handbook.

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