Authors are seeing advances reduced to a quarter of what they could have expected two years ago as publishers react to the recession by minimising risks.

Among the hardest hit are historians, who have found that books that would previously have earned them an advance of £120,000 are now commanding only £30,000. Some academics have turned from serious history to historical fiction to earn more money.

Tristram Hunt, who is believed to have received an advance of £100,000 for his biography of Friedrich Engels, said that he knew of several colleagues who had taken up fiction because it sold comparitively well. “There is a dangerous tendency among historians to slide into historical fiction, which must be avoided at all costs,” he said.

Lisa Jardine, Professor of Renaissance Studies at Queen Mary, University of London, said that she was avoiding a new contract because of the uncertain state of the market. “I would not be surprised if I were now offered half of my last advance,” she said. “A few years ago we got really handsome advances to write books that did indeed become quite good bestsellers, but never earned out their advances. Then the publishers started asking jobbing authors to write books that did annoyingly well, but they’ve dried up, too. Now, as far as I know, what has replaced us are books about the history of science.”

Professor Jardine, who has written biographies of Robert Hooke and Christopher Wren, said that the royalties from her book sales had never exceeded the advance fees paid by the publisher. She believes that new technology such as print-on-demand, which allows smaller publishers to create books without the need for large print runs, has shaken publishers’ confidence in their business models, causing them to avoid risky authors.

“Print-on-demand is a huge issue. Accountants cannot do the sums on it yet, so publishers are being incredibly cautious,” Professor Jardine said.

Another accomplished history writer, who declined to be named, said that publishers were using the recession to take advantage of authors. “I know a very successful female historian hawking a book on a very marketable topic who was only offered £25,000 for three years of work. It’s pretty serious when something like that happens. There is no reason for it, because book sales are only down by about 5 per cent, which compared to shares and so on is hardly anything.”

Peter Strauss, a literary agent whose authors include Carol Ann Duffy, the Poet Laureate, said that bookshops that once ordered 6,000 copies of a serious non-fiction title were now ordering 1,500. “Books have traditionally been recession-proof, but this time I’m not so sure.”

The worst affected are authors who have published several books with middling sales. “An author who has had three or four books and hasn’t had a brilliant track record is going to be offered such a small advance that it is not viable for them to write,” Mr Strauss said.

One agent suggested that authors writing fiction for women were also suffering. “It has polarised, so that the bestselling authors and the ones who may become the next big thing are doing well, but everyone else is suffering. About 90 per cent of women’s fiction advances are dropping dramatically. The other 10 per cent are rising dramatically.”

Jonny Geller, managing director of the books division of the Curtis Brown agency, said he was aware of several authors whose advances had dwindled from £70,000 to £25,000. “It is crippling them. Publishing has become quite reactive. It is sales led. We need publishers to start taking risks again.”

Weidenfeld & Nicolson, one of Britain’s most distinguished publishers of non-fiction, cut its non-fiction output in half recently, from 100 books a year to 50. It is believed to have paid hundreds of thousands of pounds in advances to authors whose books it will no longer publish.

A well-known television historian said that other publishers had become similarly cautious. “It has become a question of whether it is economical to write books anymore. The problem is that some authors are so vain they will keep on writing them anyway.”

The elusive deal

When a publisher commissions an author, it offers an advance, typically paid in three instalments — up front, on delivery and on publication.

Authors receive 15 per cent of sales after the advance has been covered. Only the most successful authors ever earn more than their advance.

Publishers still make a profit, because they sell books for far more than they cost to produce. It is possible to break even at 300 copies of an academic monograph.

Explore Books

• Book Extracts

• Book Reviews

• Books Group

• Audio Books

Times Recommends

• The 100 Best Books of the Decade
• The Times picks the 50 best paperbacks of 2009
• The conversation: James Ellroy