THE JOB of predicting the must-see movies of the year usually relies on a combination of industry gossip, sneaked glimpses and the half-baked speculation of internet film geeks. But for the coming year the job has been made remarkably easy for me: I suspect that I have already seen the best film of 2005. Alexander Payne’s Sideways (Jan 28) is a bittersweet buddy movie about friends who hardly know each other any more. Paul Giamatti gives the performance of his career as Miles, a failed writer and wine fanatic, who drinks memorable wines in order to forget.

I can also personally vouch for Wes Anderson’s The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou (Feb 18), an idiosyncratic and playful picture about a deep-sea explorer in a midlife crisis. Other impressive American indie films include The Woodsman (Feb 25), in which Kevin Bacon plays a convicted paedophile trying to fit back into society. Then there’s the debut film by the director Jonathan Caouette, Tarnation (Apr 22), a highly personal scrapbook of fragments of family history, and one of the most original films you will see next year.

Palindromes (Apr 22), by that arch-provocateur Todd Solondz, is a film about a 12-year-old girl who desperately wants to have a baby and sets off on a road trip to find a suitable father. The material is difficult but the fact that this film is so empathetic and sensitive in tone is one of the surprises of the year.

Of the foreign-language releases, François Ozon’s 5x2 (Mar 18) is a moving autopsy of a failed relationship. The fact that the story is told in reverse adds to the poignancy. Also from France is Jean-Pierre Jeunet’s gloriously cinematic A Very Long Engagement (Jan 21) starring his Amélie collaborator Audrey Tautou. However my personal tips are both from South America. The Argentinean director Lucrecia Martel’s The Holy Girl (Feb 4) is a remarkable, claustrophobic piece of film-making about a girl’s burgeoning sexuality and confused religious impulses. And Whisky (Jul 22), from Uruguay, is just gorgeous, an understated little comedy full of visual wit.

Also impressive is the Colombian/American co-production, Maria Full of Grace (Mar 25), which tells of a teenaged girl who is persuaded to work as a drugs mule.

There has been considerable Oscar buzz about two bio-pics. Ray (Jan 21), starring Jamie Foxx, is the story Ray Charles, and Kinsey (Mar 4) has Liam Neeson as the pioneering sex researcher. Another potential Oscar title is Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby (Jan 14), the story of a boxing trainer who takes on the task of working with a woman who is determined to become a fighter.

Several children’s releases are hotly anticipated, notably Tim Burton’s remake of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (July 29) starring Johnny Depp. A recently released teaser trailer makes it look suitably lurid and sticky.

Another adapted classic is The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, which will be released under the title The Chronicles of Narnia (Dec 16). There is little early word on this film, but the presence of Tilda Swinton and Jim Broadbent in the cast is enough to give me hope. With no Pixar release planned for this year — Cars was recently moved to the summer of 2006 — many of the most promising animations are British. Aardman studios in Bristol bring us Wallace and Gromit and the Curse of the Wererabbit (Oct 14). Sprung! The Magic Roundabout (Feb 11) is a CGI rendering of the much-loved children’s series in which Robbie Williams provides the voice of Dougal and Bill Nighy plays a wonderfully strung-out Dylan. And The Corpse Bride (Oct 31), a macabre stop-motion animation from Tim Burton, is currently filming in East London.

Now for the big fish. You would think that the latest Star Wars instalment, Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (May 19), would be a dead cert but I feel that the public has become a little tired of this moribund franchise. For space action, look instead to the Spielberg/Cruise collaboration War of the Worlds (July 8), for an adequate quota of alien-bashing excitement.

Likewise, Kingdom of Heaven (May 6), Ridley Scott’s drama about the crusades, should be a surefire hit. But after the lukewarm response to Troy and the downright panning of Alexander, will audiences be able to stomach another epic? And will the Alexander fallout harm Terrence Malick’s The New World, a grown-up Pocahontas, starring Colin Farrell?

My hopes for the coming year’s blockbusters are pinned on Peter Jackson’s King Kong (Dec 14). A director who has proved he can work on a massive scale and not compromise his artistic vision; Andy Serkis playing a giant ape: what more could you ask for?

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