Cinema-going is under threat in many towns and rural areas, with almost half of Britain’s venues facing possible closure in the next five years.

The cost of the switchover from celluloid film to digital technology will mean the survival of the fittest, imperilling local cinemas that lack the financial muscle of the multiplexes. The UK Film Council estimates that it would cost more than £50 million for the vulnerable cinemas to convert to digital. Hollywood is impatient for the transition because it will cut distribution costs and help to combat piracy.

The pace is about to be stepped up. This month the three largest American chains signed a deal to convert all their cinemas to digital.

At present, canisters of 35mm film are delivered to projection rooms, and what can be screened is limited by how many physical copies of a film are in the country. Digital “prints” are easier to transport and will eventually be sent over the internet. They can also be encrypted to thwart pirates.

Advocates of digital cinema maintain that consumers will benefit, citing 3D blockbusters that will only be viewable with digital technology, and that lower costs will allow cinemas to screen a wider range of films – for example, to show arthouse repertoire where it has a small following. Nevertheless, according to Peter Buckingham at the film council, only big multiplexes and a few arthouse cinemas, mostly in London, are certain to buy the digital projectors and servers required. These cinemas are responsible for three quarters of screens and 85 per cent of the box office.

That leaves 400 cinemas, many of them small independents, arthouses, temporary town hall cinemas, and mobile cinemas in remote areas.

Some will find a way to finance the switch, Mr Buckingham says, but “300 are in serious danger of closing because they won’t be able to afford digital, and if they haven’t got digital they aren’t going to have anything to show in five years’ time”.

Mr Buckingham, who is overseeing the switchover, has been unable to persuade the chains to share their economies of scale with small operators: “They want it to be Darwinian.”

The council believes that a united front is the only way to bring the cost of implementing the new technology below £60,000 per screen. If the big chains cut their own deals, as happened in the US, the future for the rest of the field is bleak. “I don’t know what Plan B is – there is no public money available.” Mr Buckingham believes that the future of the 300 vulnerable cinemas could be sealed in the next few months because the chains are under pressure to show that they will be able to screen the 3D films soon to come out of Hollywood.

Phil Clapp, of the Cinema Exhibitors Association, said: “I don’t share Pete’s pessimism. I have more faith that the industry will recognise the value of maintaining cinema-going in small towns and rural areas. But it will be a tough ask for a significant number.”

David Hancock, of Screen Digest, the industry analysts, said that the cinemas in jeopardy were in areas “where if the cinema goes under people don’t have access to the cinema, full stop”.

If arthouses were to close, leaving big chains showing just the big hit films, said Jane Giles, of the British Film Institute, that would represent “a terrible narrowing of people’s lives”.

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