Our predictions for the 50 Biggest Movies of 2009

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The first two months of 2009 are the final crucial laps before the Oscars, and the pressure on independent studios to have “a good awards season” has never been so intense. Historically, audience figures rocket during a recession. But no one is under any delusion that serious quality pictures will be any easier to sell. A six-hour, art house epic such as Steven Soderbergh's Che (Part One: Jan 2; Part Two: Feb 20) can quadruple its shelf life if Benicio Del Toro secures a string of Best Actor nominations for his hypnotic role as the charismatic rebel leader. It will almost certainly sink otherwise, simply because the competition is extraordinary.

Curiously, it is the glamorous British who have the films to beat. Stephen Daldry's haunting love story, The Reader (Jan 2 - see box), features an eye-catching performance by Ralph Fiennes and the first of two Oscar-worthy turns by Kate Winslet. Her second is in Sam Mendes's sour period romance, Revolutionary Road (Jan 30), where Winslet is reunited with an older, meaner Leonardo DiCaprio.

But with feel-good hits such as Danny Boyle's wonderful tearjerker, Slumdog Millionaire (Jan 9), queuing up behind them, the awards season is shaping up for an almighty scrap.

But the Americans are not going quietly. Filmgoers will rarely be so spoiled for choice with pictures such as Darren Aronofsky's thriller The Wrestler (Jan 16), with Mickey Rourke delivering the performance of his career. And there's Bryan Singer's historical thriller, Valkyrie (Jan 23), in which Tom Cruise, Kenneth Branagh and Bill Nighy play high-ranking German officers involved in the July 20 plot to assassinate Adolf Hitler.

My own tips for the season's must-sees from across the pond include Ron Howard's subtle battle of egos in Frost/Nixon (Jan 23)and David Fincher's unusually literate version of F.Scott Fitzgerald's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, starring Brad Pitt as a man who lives his life backwards (Feb 6).

Continental European competition will be equally stiff, with the release of Laurent Cantet's Palme D'Or-winning film, The Class (Feb 27), which charts a year in the life of a teacher in a rough school in one of bleakest districts of Paris. Tom Tykwer's thriller The International (Feb 27) opens the Berlin Film Festival. Clive Owen and Naomi Watts star in a high-profile investigation into a major financial centre's role in arms deals.

It will almost be a relief to break free from such a high-protein diet of indies. Once the Oscars are over younger eyes will be peeled for the eagerly awaited big-screen version of Watchmen (March), a faithful version of Alan Moore's cult comic book that looks certain to be the High Street hit of the spring. Huge interest will also surround Jean-Marc Vallée's The Young Victoria (March 6) with Emily Blunt as the young Queen and Rupert Friend as Prince Albert.

An unsettling number of big-budget remakes and sequels will stretch to the end of December - and beyond. Sadly, there are few more guilty indicators of Hollywood's creative health than the sheer poverty of ambition at the very top of the tree. The chief culprits of this alarming vogue are Quentin Tarantino's overdue, and deliberately mis-spelt, Nazi caper, Inglourious Basterds (June), starring Brad Pitt and Mike Myers, and Kevin Tancharoen's unforgivable reinvention of Fame! (release date to be confirmed). Not to mention Tony Scott's vanity regroove of The Taking of Pelham 123 (Aug 7). Vandalism.

The only original experiment in this field is Rob Marshall's rewiring of the Broadway musical, Nine (Dec), inspired by Fellini's 8. The cast includes Nicole Kidman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Judi Dench, Penelope Cruz, Kate Hudson and Sophia Loren. Now that will be worth watching.

The frenzy of expectation around Hollywood's live-action blockbusters is a familiar hazard. Angels and Demons (May 15), Ron Howard's tilt at Dan Brown's prequel to the Da Vinci Code in which Tom Hanks solves another Vatican mystery, will doubtless thrill the novelist's army of fans. It will be interesting to see what kind of edge J.J. Abrams will bring to Star Trek (May 8), where Chris Pine and Zachary Quinto play a fresh-faced Kirk and Spock in an adventure that unfolds, time-wise, just before the first chapter of the original television series began.

Christian Bale looks destined to secure top billing as the year's most damaged and upredictable anti-hero. He is dream casting as John Connor in Terminator Salvation (June 5), the long-awaited final prong of the saga in which the fugitive rebel leader declares war on the robots. A pity Arnie will not be there to reprieve his iconic role as the title lump of metal (re-assigned to Roland Kickinger).

Impressionable children of all ages can expect provocative shocks galore in the sixth feature film adaptation of J.K. Rowling's all-conquering franchise, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (July 17) - not least the “outing” of Dumbledore.

There's a wonderful thespian creak to the autumn season. Oliver Parker's spanking new version of Oscar Wilde's Dorian Gray (Nov), promises to be an absolute peach. Ben Barnes plays the madly handsome fop with the demonic portrait in the attic. Robert Downey Jr is not the first actor who leaps to mind as a swashbuckling Sherlock Holmes (Nov 20). But Guy Ritchie might actually be on to something very special here, even if Jude Law though is far too handsome to play Dr Watson.

But neither of these bold bits of casting should hold a candle to Russell Crowe's decision to play both Robin Hood and Nottingham in Ridley Scott's Nottingham (late in the year or 2010). For Crowe, this is the fulfillment of a cherished dream in which he can wear a pair of freshly ironed green tights in one scene and beat himself up in the next. I truly can't wait.

Must-see: The Reader (January)

Bernhard Schlink’s biographical story about an illicit affair in 1958 between a 15-year-old schoolboy and a 36-year-old woman found guilty of working for the SS became the first German novel to top The New York Times bestseller list in 1999.

Stephen Daldry has transformed the book into an alarming erotic thriller about moral cowardice and public shame. Kate Winslet is magnificent as the lonely tram-driver tarred and feathered for her honesty. David Kross makes a remarkable debut as her impressionable teenage lover. And Ralph Fiennes frames the film as the boy’s middle-aged self, twisted to the core by guilt.

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