As the Oscars set the seal on what is now officially “the year of serious films”, George (Star Wars) Lucas has predicted the end of the era of the blockbuster.

The New York Daily News reports that at the Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein’s Oscars party, Lucas was overheard sounding the death knell for the big-screen, big budget spectacular. “The market forces that exist today make it unrealistic to spend $200 million on a movie,” the News quotes him as saying. “Those movies can’t make their money back any more. Look at what happened with King Kong.” (Which has so far taken $300 million — not as impressive as it seems at first blush, given that it cost $200 million to make.)

And he didn’t stop there. “In the future, almost everything that gets shown in theatres will be indie movies,” he said. “I predict that by 2025, the average movie will cost only $15 million.”

If Lucas is right, and there is a sea-change of public opinion away from the ludicrously expensive and predictable, perhaps he should take his share of the credit. This is, after all, the man who spent six years and about $350 million making three prequels to his Star Wars saga.

Before that, with fellow director Steven Spielberg, he transformed the entire business model of movie-making with the Indiana Jones films. When Raiders of the Lost Ark became the first big film to be released on video for public sale, rather than rental, the critics scoffed. Nobody, they said, would pay £15 to own a film and watch it repeatedly. The critics were wrong.

Thanks to his exemplary foresight, the makers of King Kong will shortly be looking to recoup their monkey money with at least two separate editions of Peter Jackson’s ape epic, with a third, mega, make-no-plans-for-the weekend four-disc edition rumoured to be in the pipeline for Christmas.

Back at Weinstein’s party, Lucas reflected on the Oscar winners: “Is that good for the business? No — it’s bad for the business. But moviemaking isn’t about business. It’s about art.”

For the record, Lucas’s next planned artwork is a fourth Indiana Jones film with Harrison Ford. Nevertheless, it is significant that a film-maker of Lucas’s standing should be questioning the very type of film that made his fortune.

The six films that walked away with this year’s most coveted Oscars were made for estimated combined budgets of $89 million. Between them, they have so far taken more than $340 million, a figure that will at least double once the Oscar effect and DVD sales are factored in.

Such figures are likely to prove irresistible to those in control of the movie business — although, as George Clooney remarked, change in Hollywood takes time to filter through. Hollywood does not do revolution, but evolution.

One thing’s for sure: Hollywood is not a natural breeding ground for altruism. If, as some critics claim, too much money is going to fund films with a worthy left-wing agenda, that’s only because the public is paying to see them.

Explore Film

• Film Reviews

• Trailers

• DVD

• Oscars

• Cannes

Editor's choice

• U2 at Nou Camp Stadium, Barcelona
• The 50 Best Movie Villains
• The 15 golden rules of theatre etiquette