Will Slumdog Millionaire and Kate Winslet be the winning combination that breaks the global bank and plunges us into the mother of all recessions? Not at these miserly odds they won’t. With Slumdog Millionaire at odds on to win the Oscar for the Best Picture, and Winslet to take Best Actress, you will have to fork out a serious amount of sterling for any sort of decent return.

That said, they are quite rightly the racing certainties to lift the Oscars in what is turning out to be an astonishing year for British independent cinema. With 10 Oscar nominations to add to the 11 it has received for the Baftas, Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire is taking the fight to the Americans.

The story about a teenage boy from the slums, poised to win a fortune on India’s version of Who Wants to be a Millionaire?, ticks all the right boxes. It is a rags-to-riches tale with harrowing scenes of Dickensian child cruelty and exploitation in Mumbai.

It is also a Cain and Abel story about two brothers who are parted by their decision to choose good over evil, and vice versa.

Ultimately, it is a story about survival against all the odds. It’s hard to see which film could win, and the William Hill Oscar prices reflect that dramatically.

Slumdog’s closest rival, the ghastly David Fincher film, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, is only a 4-1 shot, followed by Stephen Daldry’s The Reader, Milk and Frost/Nixon. That’s how the critics see it, too.

This is Kate Winslet’s chance to win her first Oscar for her brilliant portrayal of a disgraced ex-Nazi collaborator in The Reader. Her odds might seem generous, but the competition, frankly, doesn’t put up much of a fight. Angelina Jolie can only muster long odds for her performance in The Changeling as a distraught mother in Depression-era Los Angeles. And Meryl Streep’s odds of winning look equally forlorn for her role as an uptight nun in Doubt.

Heath Ledger is on course to win a posthumous Oscar as Best Supporting Actor for his deranged performance as The Joker in The Dark Knight.

However, you can never discount the Philip Seymour Hoffman factor. He has tempting odds for his role as a priest in danger of being defrocked by Meryl Streep in Doubt. He is also an indie hero, so would be a terrific each-way bet and, indeed, worthy of a pound on the nose.

Neither is the award for Best Director a foregone conclusion. Danny Boyle looks like the best bet. But it’s at this fence that British gamblers may fall in their thousands. The American Academy has an alarming habit of splitting the spoils. David Fincher is a thoroughly undeserved second favourite, but with 13 nominations riding on Benjamin Button, he is intent on spoiling the British party. Gus Van Sant is a decent long shot given that he has stolen Clint Eastwood’s seat (The Changeling) with Milk, about the gay rights campaigner Harvey Milk. I suspect, though, that the smart money will go elsewhere.

The toughest fight will be for Best Actor. Mickey Rourke is currently winning it, for beating himself up in The Wrestler. I’ve got a strong feeling that he will be thwarted on the night. There are some serious bruisers in this ring, notably Brad Pitt for his eerie performance as Benjamin Button, and Sean Penn (the local favourite) for his terrific portrayal of Harvey Milk. As for Frank Langella, at 9-1 for his wonderfully slippery performance as the disgraced former President in Frost/Nixon . . . now that’s well worth a punt.

Editor's choice

• The 100 Best Films of 2009
• The 100 Worst Movies of 2009
• The 100 Best Films of the Decade