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Next year's winners may be determined by a set of variables other than the usual factors of box office and critical acclaim. The worse the financial downturn, the more likely the Academy is to reward feel-good, optimistic crowd-pleasers. This, and the fact that Iraq movies have trouble finding an audience, may rule out the usual Academy favourites Jim Sheridan and Paul Greengrass, for Brothers and Green Zone respectively. Stories of courage should do well, so watch out for Hilary Swank playing the female aviator Amelia Earhart in Mira Nair's Amelia. But there's a year to go and the race is wide open. And somewhere out there there's a low-budget underdog story that may just sweep the board again...

Nine (released late 2009)

Rob Marshall's latest Broadway adaptation, inspired by Fellini's 8 ½ , tells of a film director juggling the women in his life. Its cast includes Daniel Day-Lewis, Nicole Kidman, Penélope Cruz, Marion Cotillade and Sophia Loren. And the award goes to: the enduringly fabulous Sophia Loren for Best Supporting Actress.

The Lovely Bones (released Jan 29, 2010)

The bleak story in Peter Jackson's adaptation of Alice Sebold's novel - the spirit of a murdered girl watches over her family and killer from Heaven - may not chime with an academy looking for an antidote to the economic gloom. A good bet for the technical prizes. And the award goes to: Andrew Lesnie for Best Cinematography.

The Human Factor (released Dec 2009)

If there's a film that screams Oscar bait, it's Clint Eastwood's latest, with the veteran director at his worthiest. It's hard to imagine the Academy ignoring its subject, Nelson Mandela, played by Morgan Freeman, who's sure of a nomination. And the award goes to: Clint Eastwood for Best Director; still churning them out in his seventies.

Shutter Island (released Oct 23, 2009)

Martin Scorsese broke his Oscar duck with a win for The Departed, and the omens look promising for this 1950s-set thriller about two marshals on the trail of an escaped murderess. The film is adapted from a book by Dennis Lehane, who wrote Mystic River, also an Oscar-winning film. And the award goes to: Leo DiCaprio for Best Actor.

Chéri (released May 8, 2009)

Stephen Frears's The Queen won an Oscar for the magnificent Helen Mirren. Will Colette's 1920s Parisian romantic drama do the same for Michelle Pfeiffer? But its release date suggests that the film will not be pushed as a big awards contender. But, going out on a limb, the award goes to: Christopher Hampton for Best Adapted Screenplay.

A Serious Man (released autumn 2009)

The Coen brothers stormed the Oscars with No Country for Old Men last year but their latest is an unknown quantity. The story of a professor whose life unravels because of his brother, the film is a black comedy - not a favourite genre with the Academy. Still, it could surprise us. And the award goes to: Joel and Ethan Coen for Best Original Screenplay.

Broken Embraces (released Aug 28, 2009)

Foreign-language films rarely make it into the main awards categories, but if anyone can make the Academy take notice, it's the Spanish auteur Pedro Almódovar. He is noted for the complex, meaty roles he writes for women, so this is a good place to look for acting prizes. And the award goes to: Penélope Cruz for Best Actress.

Watchmen (released Mar 6, 2009)

Perhaps the Academy will take heed of audience pressure and get over its aversion to comic-book adaptations. Zack Snyder's film needs to combine serious damage at the box office with plenty of critical love. It's safe to assume that Watchmen will do best for technical accomplishment. And the award goes to: the trillions of people who worked on Visual Effects.

Public Enemies (released July 3, 2009)

Johnny Depp and Christian Bale star in Michael Mann's 1930s gangster movie. Depp's turn as violent gangster John Dillinger is a departure for an actor who has been increasingly cast in the likeable maverick role. But the award goes to: Channing Tatum for Best Supporting Psychotic Pretty Boy.

Taking Woodstock (released Oct 30, 2009)

The Academy has had a love affair with the director Ang Lee over the years, so his latest, a feel-good period piece set around the iconic rock festival, should be in with a chance. The comedian Demetri Martin in the lead is a gamble, but the cast includes Emile Hirsch and Paul Dano, too. And the award goes to: Ang Lee and James Schamus for Best Picture

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