It won't please her in-laws but Amy Winehouse is tipped to make a dramatic return to the limelight by winning the Mercury Music Prize tonight.

Organisers are hoping the troubled singer will appear at the Grosvenor House “album of the year” ceremony after returning from a Caribbean holiday with husband Blake Fielder-Civil.

Winehouse has cancelled an American promotional tour while she deals with “health issues”. Winehouse’s in-laws said the singer was taking heroin, cocaine, and crack and expressed fears that she and their son could die.

They asked the organisers of the Mercury and this month’s Mobo awards to remove Winehouse, 23, from consideration until she adressed her drug problems.

But she remains on the Mercury list and will compete against Jamie T, Arctic Monkeys, Bat For Lashes and The View in tonight’s Grosvenor House awards, screened live on BBC Four.

The Back To Black singer has already won Ivor Novello and Brit awards and was the bookies favourite for the £20,000 Mercury award, which seeks to reward innovation over mere sales.

However Winehouse has drifted out as punters question whether her tabloid notoriety will play badly with the judges. William Hill closed the betting on Winehouse not showing up. Punters instead began to favour Bat For Lashes, pseudonym of 27-year-old singer, songwriter and musician Natasha Khan.

She has enjoyed favourable comparisons to Kate Bush and Bjork, with Fur and Gold, her otherworldy debut album inspired by childhood reminiscences.

Now in its 16th year, the Mercury judges have frequently taken contrary positions, favouring the US-based torch singer Antony and the Johnsons over Kaiser Chiefs two years ago.

A repeat win for Arctic Monkeys appears too predictable, even though their Favourite Worst Nightmare release matched the critical acclaim heaped upon their 2006-winning debut.

This year’s shortlist sought to represent NME-favoured artists who are packing gigs with a largely teenage audience. “New rave” acts Klaxons and New Young Pony Club were stars of the Summer festival circuit, where fans mouthed back every Trustafarian-inflected word of “estuary pop” star Jamie T.

Although nominations have brought attention to Irish folk singer Fionn Regan and bedroom electronic whizz James Chapman, aka Maps, the prize has failed in one of its intentions - to revitalise album sales during Summer.

Only Winehouse, Arctic Monkeys and Klaxons made this week’s top 75, reflecting a disastrous year for the concept of the album as a coherent collection of music, which the prize venerates.

Given the collection of promising but patchy debuts dominating the shortlist it would be little surprise if the Mercury judges ignored the lurid headlines and found that Winehouse’s compelling reinvention of classic soul was still the best on offer.

William Hill Nationwide Mercury Prize Latest Odds:

13/8 Bat For Lashes, 3/1 Amy Winehouse, 3/1 Jamie T, 10/1 Klaxons, 14/1 Maps, 16/1 Fionn Regan, 16/1 Artic Monkeys, 20/1 The View, 33/1 The Young Knives, 33/1 New Young Pony Club, 33/1 Dizee Rascal, 33/1 Basquiat Strings

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