Let’s be clear about this. It wasn’t that the music industry types assembled at the announcement of this year’s Nationwide Mercury Shortlist didn’t like Raising Sand – although from the synchronized quizzical furrowing of 200 eyebrows, you would have been forgiven for thinking that. It’s just that the Mercury is a prize awarded to British albums. Admittedly, Robert Plant is British, but on a record of duets with an American singer (Alison Krauss) comprised mostly of American songs, many chosen and produced by an American (T-Bone Burnett) – well, it seemed a little contrary.

But then, contrary is what the Mercury does best of all. Hence no room for Goldfrapp and Paul Weller, despite both releasing the most acclaimed albums of their careers in recent months. Having been nominated for their previous three albums – including 2005’s turgid X and Y, Coldplay will feel aggrieved that their Viva La Vida opus didn’t make it in. Super Furry Animals’ Hey Venus deserved to be in there, but the Welsh group’s frontman Gruff Rhys will take some comfort in the fact that his moreish synth-pop side project Neon Neon – inspired by the life of Seventies car tycoon John De Lorean – landed him a nomination. It’s surely with mixed feelings that Alex Turner’s fellow Arctic Monkeys will gaze on at the presence of his side-project The Last Shadow Puppets. Turner seems to be conspicuously more fired up by the orchestral pop possibilities explored by him and his new best chum Miles Kane than he ever was in his other band.

What distinguishes the Mercury from other music prizes, of course, is its ability to instantly make household names of hitherto unknown artists – if only for a little while. At the Mercury nominations three years ago, Seth Lakeman turned up and – by whipping out his violin and playing a song to the assembled media – ended up on every nationwide news bulletin by teatime. At today’s announcement, the excellent Portico Quartet did the same by using what appeared to be a £24.99 Homebase barbeque as percussion (they claimed it was a Swedish instrument called a Hang). No chance, it must be said, of such sudden fame befalling South London dubstep practioner Burial, who keeps his identity secret. Quite how long his anomymity will last, now that the plangent, cinematic sound-sketches of his second album Untrue have come to wider attention, is anyone’s guess.

Elsewhere, it’s a list that divides between resurgent emissaries of left-field rock and strong young female artists. Among the former, even the Mercury’s propensity to willfulness wouldn’t have dared extend to omitting Radiohead’s endlessly repeatable In Rainbows. Radiohead may have made the more daring album – but for synergy of restrained lyrical confessionals and consistently breathtaking arrangements, Elbow’s The Seldom Seen Kid is probably marginally more than its match. What this year’s list seems to have finally formalized, however, is that the strongest emerging songwriting talents are to be found in young female artists. On the face of it, Laura Marling and Adele would seem to have a lot in common. Just over a year separates them, and both their albums suggest the use of failed relationships as creative fuel. If only for the fact that Adele still sounds like a work in progress, Marling is a smarter bet for outright victory. Alas I Cannot Swim – Marling’s album of intricate literate chamber-pop vignettes – would be remarkable from a songwriter of any age, let along one who recorded these songs aged 17. Also welcome on the shortlist are Rachel Unthank & The Winterset, whose bleak baroque reconfiguration of English folk music has resulted in an excellent second album The Bairns.

Radiohead make Mercury shortlist

Radiohead competes with The Last Shadow Puppets, Robert Plant and Alison Krauss and Estelle for the prestigious prize

BACKGROUND

• Radiohead at the Empress Ballroom

• Radiohead at Olympia, Dublin

• Radiohead at Edinburgh Corn Exchange

• It's not that Radiohead are bad...

• Radiohead: Hail to the Thief

BACKGROUND

• Last Shadow Puppets' dilemma

• The Last Shadow Puppets: The Age of the Understatement:

• The Age of Understatement by The Last Shadow Puppets

• The Big CD: The Last Shadow Puppets - The Age of the Understatement

• Arctic's Alex Turner unveils new project

BACKGROUND

• Robert Plant & Alison Krauss

• New country for old men

• Robert Plant & Alison Krauss: Raising Sand

• The odd couple

• Top Five Gigs: Paul Weller

BACKGROUND

• Estelle has just begun

• Estelle: Shine

• Exclusive free Estelle download

• Estelle

• Top Five Gigs: Massive Attack's Meltdown

Related Links

• Radiohead make Mercury shortlist

If this year’s Mercury goes to a woman for the first time since 2002, it will probably go to Estelle’s Shine. All the components are in place. British black music has fared comparatively poorly in recent years – and, having relocated to New York and secured a worldwide deal after being dropped by her UK label, she’s also made a record that bears repeated listening. Amid all the debate and counter-debate concerning what makes a worthy winner, that latter criterion (see past winners: Antony & The Johnsons, Roni Size, M People) can sometimes get forgotten. Not this year though. Whichever way you look at it, the inescapable conclusion is that British music is in better shape than it has been for years.

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