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To pop, as with everything, there is a season. As Christmas comes to an end and pop's established big hitters vacate the playlists, so begins the next phase: getting to know the latest batch of stars in waiting. But there's another reason why record companies launch new acts at the beginning of the year. Record sales are at their lowest at this time, so just a few thousand downloads ensure a Top 10 single. With the big names out of the picture, it's the nearest pop gets to the FA Cup.
In reality, the overnight successes vying for your attention in three weeks' time will have been, in some cases, incubating for years. The burnished creations of heart-on-sleeve troubadour Gary Go are designed to find favour with anyone who has waved their lighter at a Paolo Nutini or James Morrison show.
With the anthemic monochrome indie rock of To Lose My Life - released in January, supported by an extensive tour throughout February - White Lies are expected to impose themselves upon 2009 the way Arctic Monkeys did on 2006.
Whether they do, of course, is anything but a foregone conclusion. Lately, our buying habits as pop fans have begun to resemble those of volatile shareholders, able to give or withhold their backing on a whim. Perhaps that's not surprising. The charts are scattered with acts - some permanently installed, some just passing through - who we voted in to do the job. Some of them have been doing it for so long that, we have forgotten their beginnings on the talent shows which brought them together. A 13-year-old girl with tickets to see Girls Aloud on their Out Of Control tour in April will have been five when they first appeared on Popstars: the Rivals. A scheduled autumn release for Leona Lewis's second album (sessions begin next month) with a tour to follow in 2010, makes it likely that, come next Christmas, she will have outsold every other British singer.
Should Amy Winehouse pull herself together and return with any sort of new material this year, it's hard not to wonder where she would fit in among a prevalent sense that right now - post Duffy and Gabriella Cilmi - we really couldn't manage a single slice of retro-soul black forest gateau.
The reaction meted out to the 2007 Mercury prize appearance by Natasha Khan's Bat for Lashes suggests that the public appetite for a freakish fin-de-siècle Kate Bush may be peaking. Resisting the urge to polish the waxing tidal invocations of Fur and Gold into something more radio-friendly, Khan's second album, due in April, has seen her create a heroically strange new alter-ego - apparently “a David Lynch-style film noir femme fatale” called Pearl - and bag a duet with Scott Walker in the process.
Khan bears testament to the fact that, these days, a savvy artist will take the requirements of the mainstream with a pinch of salt. The kind of people who seek out their live music in arenas are not known for their loyalty. Razorlight were a stadium act until their third album Slipway Fires appeared, to spend only three weeks in the Top 75.
Having returned with what they had deemed their poppiest album to date, Keane are in the unenviable position of commencing a tour, at the end of January, on the back of an album (Perfect Symmetry) that has all but disappeared after its opening single, Spiralling. Who, right now, would swap with Scissor Sisters - the rumoured recipients of £1 million to headline the V Festival in 2005 - now faced with the prospect of finding the fanbase they lost with their last album? Their third album is set for release this autumn with no guarantee that anyone in the world at large is still interested.
Certain artists, of course, will shift records and tickets in any climate. Abetted by opening sets from Jay-Z and Girls Aloud, Coldplay's stadium shows are a perfect time to see a band whose creative and commercial peaks have intersected. Beyoncé's June shows have already sold out. So, perhaps for reasons more to do with voyeurism, have almost all of Britney Spears's. Clamour for Take That's summer tour will no doubt be intensified by Robbie Williams' recent intimations that he may join them at selected shows.
Released in February, Morrissey's Years of Refusal is a welcome throwback to the sonic pugilism of Your Arsenalboasting, in Something is Squeezing my Skull and One Day Goodbye Will be Farewell, two songs to rival the best of his solo canon. Massive interest should greet the next album by Manic Street Preachers - it features previously unheard lyrics written by Richey Edwards prior to his disappearance in 1995. Due in March is No Line on the Horizon, the imminent U2 album that sees the Irish monoliths back with producers Daniel Lanois and Brian Eno. According to guitarist The Edge, the new batch of songs “sounds like a U2 album but it doesn't sound like anything we've done before.” Among the rumoured highlights are Unknown Caller (a song recorded last year in the Moroccan city of Fez) and the seven-minute Moment Of Surrender.
Right now, though, there's arguably not a single artist from rock's old guard to rival the vein of inspiration that seems to have consumed Bruce Springsteen in recent years. To anyone but a core of fans who refuse to believe that Born to Run can be topped,: 2007's Magic was the most inspired E Street Band collaboration yet. Due in January, Working on a Dream marks, in Springsteen's words, an attempt to catch “the energy of a band fresh off the road from some of the most exciting shows we've ever done”.
In depressed times, it's easier to sell an established artist than a new one by an unknown artist. Even a runaway critical success such as Fleet Foxes has created less revenue from 120,000 album sales than the reunited Blur will on one night of their UK shows this summer.
For their part, pop's class of 2009 will find it increasingly hard to wedge themselves into a space already full of relics and casualties from the previous 53 years. White Lies notwithstanding, however, the best thing about the new vanguard of indie musicians coming through in 2009 is their lack of anything that might traditionally be termed ambition. Having already delivered some of the most thrilling shows of 2008, Glasgow's Broken Records are amassing a snowballing following by merging blazing Balkan violins with literate lovelorn melodies that answer to names likesuch as If Eilert Lovberg Wrote A Song It Would Sound Like This.
More than ever, women are also making the running. Florence And The Machine (pictured) brings her titanium self-confidence to bear upon clattering pop parables about coffin-builder boyfriends and birds whose souls sing out the sins of the people who eat them. Following in the footsteps of 2008's most whip-smart pop women Lykke Li and Ladyhawke is La Roux. Having been selected to receive the second ever Brits Critics' Choice Award (Adele won it last year), Ahead of an imminent support slot on Lily Allen's February tour, her new single Quicksand is a opening shot from an artist singlehandedly able to make elastic 80s electropop sound better than it ever did in the 80s. The list goes on: the distressed harmonic fem-punk of Brighton trio Peggy Sue; the hot-bloodedchamber-folk ofgroup Six Day Riot ; the sultry, somnambulant oscillations of Berlin's Moon Unit - all bands forging their own path, indifferent to the fact that this really is no way to make a living. Here's hoping they prove themselves wrong.
GLASTONBURY 2009
If Emily Eavis was nervous when The Times spoke to her in June 2007, it was hardly a surprise. Glastonbury needed to sell its remaining 20,000 tickets to break even. And, even then, if it rained again, or if Jay-Z confirmed Noel Gallagher’s declaration that hip-hop didn’t belong in Glastonbury, the festival’s prospects for 2009 looked bleak. What happened next, of course, is the stuff of legend. “We have about 15,000 tickets left [for 2009’s festival],” says Eavis, “And they are steadily selling.” Better still, having seen the effect that Jay-Z’s set had, the Eavises reported a marked upturn of interest from artists whose fees normally put them out of the Festival’s price range. “I’ve never known us to have so many great bands wanting to play,” continues Eavis, “We have some very special things lined up for 2009, and without giving any line-up specifics away, it really looks set to be one of our most exciting bills ever. We have one or two people headlining who are complete first timers, which I think always raises the bar.” Complete first-timers? Who could she be referring to? Names recently thrown up by the rumour mill have included Bruce Springsteen and Neil Young – neither of whom have stopped by Glastonbury in 38 years of Festivals. Eavis’s lips remain sealed. But, whoever else plays, it seems reasonable to assume that Oasis might give Worthy Farm a wide berth on this occasion.
Glastonbury Festival 2009, Worthy Farm, June 24-28 (www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk)
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