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Around 40 years ago, the astronomer Frank Drake estimated that there were 100 civilisations within our galaxy, the Milky Way, capable of communicating with us. Now his estimate has gone up to 10,000. Drake was the founder of SETI (Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence), whose scientists are the world’s principal alien hunters.
As part of my new series, The Cosmos: A Beginner’s Guide, I visited their new telescope, the Allen Telescope Array (ATA), in northern California, which will listen for alien messages 24 hours a day. When it is complete, the ATA will comprise 350 aluminium dishes, each six metres in diameter, which will scan the heavens. The SETI astronomers believe that any intelligent aliens are most likely to live on planets orbiting around stars, so they will start with the nearest stars and listen to each in turn. They hope to scan more than a million stars. There are a hundred billion stars in our galaxy so it will be like looking for a needle in a haystack. But their chief astronomer, Seth Shostack, has bet me a pint that they will pick up a signal by 2030 Supposing that they do pick up a few beeps coming from another planet. How will they know whether it really is a signal, rather than just noise? How will they attempt to work out what it means? Should they reply? What should they say? Or should they act first and send out their own signals? Fortunately there is a team, the InterStellar Message Design Group, working on these very questions. With luck they will be ready when the time comes. [[ In our solar system there are eight planets – Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. We can be sure that there are no intelligent creatures on seven of them – the first two are too hot, and the outer ones are too cold. But what about planets orbiting other stars? The problem is that they are a long way away and very dark. Unlike stars, which shine brightly, planets are dim and are lit only by their parent stars – looking for them is rather like trying to catch a cricket ball when the sun is shining in your eyes. However, the technology has advanced so much in the past decade that astronomers have been able to find more than 200 of these so-called exo-planets.
My favourite planet hunter lives in a garage with a sliding roof, perched on the rim of an old volcano in the Canary Islands. Super WASP (Wide-Angle Search for Planets) is an array of eight digital cameras mounted on a robotic arm. They photograph the night sky, capturing 50,000 stars in each picture; then the arm moves around, and they take another set. By the end of the night they have taken 600 photographs. The brightness of every star in every picture is measured, and if any star has become slightly dimmer for a while then there might have been a planet passing in front of it, blocking out some of the light. In its first year, Super WASP looked at seven million stars, found 18,000 possibles, 100 probables and what turned out to be two new exo-planets.
All the exo-planets found so far have been “hot Jupiters” – giant planets orbiting close to their suns. These are unlikely to harbour life, but the fact that there are so many suggests that there may be planets around most of the stars in our galaxy, and surely some of those must be a bit like Earth.
All life that we know about is based on water, so life is most likely to be found on planets where there is liquid water on the surface – in other words, with a temperature between about 0 and 60 degrees Celsius. This puts them in the “habitable zone”, where life might be able to evolve. We know that at least one of the exo-planets has water in its atmosphere, so the chance of finding life seems to be increasing.
Many people remember Carl Sagan’s 1980 series Cosmos. Since then there have been immense advances in technology and computer power, and as a result the subject has moved on. Sagan had no knowledge about exo-planets, for example. That is why I wanted to tackle cosmology again, to bring the ideas up to date. The Cosmos: A Beginner’s Guide starts with the story of the alien chasers, and goes on to look at the other remarkable areas of research. We look at some of the spacecraft and robots that have been sent out to explore our solar system. I was amazed by the story of Voyager I, which was launched by Nasa in September 1977 and is still sending back a message every night – even ET didn’t phone home that often. After whizzing around Jupiter, Saturn and Saturn’s biggest moon, Titan, Voyageris now zooming out of the solar system – it is heading for the stars at a million miles every day. But even at that colossal speed, reaching the nearest star will still take 40,000 years – the universe is vast.
And beyond our galaxy, there are a hundred billion more galaxies. Surely, somewhere, there must be life. The only question is, will we find it? Or will it find us?
The Cosmos: A Beginner’s Guide, Tues, BBC Two, 7.30pm
THE UNIVERSAL TRUTH
If we sent a radio message to aliens orbiting our nearest star, it would reach them in four years.
Our nearest star, Proxima Centauri, is four light-years away, or 40 million, million miles.
The universe is about 100 billion light-years across.
If the solar system were the size of Wembley Stadium, the Earth would be as big as a pea.
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It would seem to me that the universe can be a hundred
billion light years across because prior to the big bang there was nothing to fix anything to the speed of light.
With the advent of the universe the hidden element or
dimension of gravity fixed the benchmark for the speed of light.
To my way of thinking man isn't going to get anywhere in
space until the gravity dimension can be opened up.
This also goes for communication.
les, cambridgeshire, uk
Just Google 'Disclosure Project' and read the hundreds of accounts from ex US military personnel concerning 'aliens' and then wonder why they make this type of programme.
B Green, LONDON, ENGLAND,
Watch the excellent series Cosmos by Carl Sagan.You can't beat that
xenophon, Nottingham,
I cant understand the signals from a woman standing next to me in a bar !
stuart mackie, london,
There is zillions and zillions of intelligent life out there ...thats why we do not hear from them....
COLIN, PORTLAND, DORSET
Duh !!
COLIN, PORTLAND, DORSET
Stephen Jay Gould's conjecture: It is possible, perhaps likely or near-certain, that wherever life evolves, it evolves to a point where it has consumed ALL its life-supporting resources and then begins a process of self-destruction resulting in "Vivicide" - the death of ALL life - on that planet.
For an example of this priniciple in action, just... Do I have to complete this sentence? No, you are reading this in a newspaper, so you know what's going on around you already. Not too good, is it?
Remember this: We took millions of years to evolve to where we COULD send or detect communication with exoplanets, but it only took 150 years after discovering oil to USE IT ALL UP! It's less than 100 years since we gained the ability to send or receive such signals but we're just about to to hit the BIG global warming tipping point - and America's policies are NOT helping us. Why should any other planet have better "luck" than us? There is really NO compelling reason that they should, is there?
Tim, Winnipeg, Canada
Since SETI is only searching for radio frequencies, how likely is it that we are going to find ET tuned into Radio 1? Perhaps they have developed enough to listen to internet radio, still we might be able to hack an ancient interplanetary WIFI connection - oh silly me that's microwaves. I wonder if I can submit a propsal for reasearch funding into intergalactic smoke signals - that is if they haven't banned smoking of course.
Rich Smee, Cardiff, Cardiff
Looking at the Drake equation, it is easy to see that altering even a single parameter can have dramatic effects on the resulting figure. So the location of any life forms outside of our world can easily change the equation to a far more positive result, and that having been said, a case can be made for this from the information on this page:
http://www.xenotechresearch.com/marsgal2.htm
The claims that so many rare or odd events had to happen for life to exist on Earth are simply untrue- nature has, built within itself, the propensity to create organic compounds just from the laws of physics.
Most people seem to suffer from a strange sense of uniqueness or self-importance, but the truth is almost always completely different from our expectations. We are surely not unique; life must be very common through all of space, although in many cases it may be no more than bacteria or sea urchins.
Intelligence is the most important thing to find.
Charles Shults, Orlando, Florida
Todd, if you're implying that scientists do not "work" for a living then that's disgraceful. If you had any idea about the theoretical and practical skills needed to find an exo-planet, you wouldn't say such naive things. Also, such experiments aid research in other areas of cosmology.
You also seem to be uable to appreciate just how many planets there are out there. I advise first learning astrophysics, then elementary probability theory, and then get a pen and paper and do your own calculations, before you spout off anti-intellectualism on this website.
I wonder if anybody else is sick and tired of scientists being treated with scorn? We live in a society where armchair hypocrites are prepared to use technology to post their comments, but also one where spiritualist and mysticism books outsell science books by 3 to 1. It makes me furious.
Dave Jones, Liverpool, UK,
Why is it that, if signals containing encoded information were detected coming from outer space, the scientific community would jump to ascribe it to extraterrestrial intelligence; and yet when we see information clearly encoded in our DNA, it is deemed 'unscientific' to infer an intelligent designer? This double-standard is, to say the least, puzzling.
Stephen Morris, Shrewsbury, UK
If there is life "out thereâ, we will never be able to communicate with them in any meaningful manner because messages will take years to arrive, each way, and that's for the closest ones. Since most of the stars in our galaxy are thousands to tens of thousands of light years away, messages would take many life times to reach their targets.
In addition, the processes that make life on Earth possible are so very numerous, that even the vast numbers of possible planets in the Universe does not seem sufficient for the odds. It is highly likely we are the only attraction, with no supporting players. But who am I to spoil the party? Let those with the grant money scan the heavens anyway, just for the fun of it (sure beats working for a living).
Todd, New Egypt, New Jersey
If ET finds us let's hope we don't turn out to be like the US Plains Indians, and his friends the Europeans.
Ferdinand Bull, Lectoure, France
It seems far more likely that there are Aliens out there than that there are not. The time frame in which they might use radio as a means of communication however is likely to be tiny, relatively speaking, so SETI seems unlikely to succeed. We need to get out there ourselves and make some interstallar noise by terraforming Mars and sending near-light speed probes with (expensive) new engine technology to nearby stars. That would attract someone's attention, perhaps. Of course, that might be catastrophic for our survival...
Dave B, Manchester, UK
how can the universe be 100 billion light years across if the maximum velocity of anything is light speed, and the universe is estimated to be between 11.2 and 20 billion years old.
colin, alicante,
We could never disprove the idea that there is intelligent life elsewhere in the Universe. On the other hand, there is not a scrap of evidence that there is any such life. The logical thing is not to believe in extraterrestrial intelligent life, but to be prepared to be proved wrong.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
Using the anthropic principle, the answer is no. Should be interesting.
Ben, York,
Its maddening to think that the signal is arriving NOW as I write this; but it might take till 2030 to find it. We could find it tomorrow if we just knew the precise spot to look. It is a single point in the sky.
Sentinent, Rockford, Minn
4 light-years is approximately 40 million million kilometres (not miles, as stated). Looking forward to watching the programme!
Chris Miller, Naphill, Bucks