Late-night talk shows in the US were preparing to go off the air last night — to be followed by popular television series such as House and Heroes — as a long-running dispute between writers and studios reached an impasse.

A writers’ strike would be the first such walkout in Hollywood since 1988, when a dispute lasting 22 weeks cost the industry an estimated $500 million and killed off several television shows. Viewing figures fell by 10 per cent during the strike — a fall from which the industry never recovered.

Because of the long production times of films, and the stockpiling of screenplays by studios, the effect of industrial action would probably not be felt at cinemas until late next year at least.

The stalemate in talks between the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers resulted in a federal mediator being called in yesterday to help to negotiate a compromise. However, as the writers’ collectively bargained contracts reached their expiration at midnight, hopes were not high. One agent described a strike as “a self-fulfilling prophecy, like the Iraq war”.

Although the 12,000 members of the guild have voted overwhelmingly to strike immediately, insiders believe that the walkout may not occur for weeks. Many believe that the guild will call its strike over Christmas to ruin the holidays of studio executives.

The most contentious issue in negotiations concerns how the royalties for writers will be calculated from the distribution of TV shows via the internet and mobile phones. The studios say that they will not agree to anything that restricts their ability to “experiment” with new methods of digital distribution. “We will not ignore the challenges of today’s economic realities, the shifts in audience taste and viewing habits, and the unpredictability of still-evolving technology,” the producers’ alliance said.

The writers say that they will never give in to such logic again, after missing out on the boom in DVD sales during the 1990s. They are also insisting on fixed royalty fees rather than profit-related payments, arguing that the studios are able to manipulate their accounts to show that even hugely successful productions are always in the red.

Analysts believe that a writers’ strike could hasten the take-up of new digital formats, bypassing the entire Hollywood system and leaving the entire industry unemployed. Websites such as YouTube, as well as social networking sites, are likely to attract a massive increase in popularity if next year’s television season consists entirely of reality shows and repeats.

“Reality will have a bigger presence, along with more news magazines, sports and game shows,” predicted Scott Sternberg, producer of the reality show Hey Paula, about the singer and American Idol judge Paula Abdul.Even reality shows, though, could be difficult to make if, as expected, crew members refuse to cross picket lines.

Actors and directors are also preparing to strike when their own collectively bargained contracts expire next summer. This could bring the economy of Los Angeles to a standstill, with managers, lawyers, and agents finding themselves without income for months.

British writers will be largely unable to capitalise on the strike, because to sell a script to an American studio they must be a member of the guild or risk being blacklisted for the rest of their career.Productions that would be affected immediately by a strike include the topical late-night shows hosted by David Letterman, Jimmy Kimmel, Jay Leno, Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert and others. Without their teams of writers there would be no material for the hosts.

The issues are more complex for scripted dramas because the writers are often also the show’s creators. In some cases, executive producers create their own production companies, which essentially puts them on both sides of the negotiations.

Matt Olmstead, executive producer of Prison Break, has said that he will walk out of the production if a strike is called, whereas David Shore, executive producer of House, says he will continue with his non-writing duties.

Still, selling a screenplay remains the ultimate dream of many jobbing writers in LA, and while the strike is generally dreaded - many will be forced to take menial jobs - it is also regarded as an excellent opportunity to work on 'personal projects'.

"Every writer is talking a big game about all the movies and pilots they'll get done during the strike," said one writer for a popular late-night talk show, who didn't want to be named. "I think that means they'll be playing a lot of videogames."

Lights, camera, action . . . everybody out

— In 1941 in response to low wages and redundancies, hundreds of Walt Disney cartoonists gathered on picket lines outside the studio and set up camp in neighbouring fields. The strike lasted five weeks and cartoonists received 50 per cent increases in pay and union representation

— In 1987 6,000 film extras walked off television and film sets in America to protest against 40 per cent wage cuts

— Between 1990 and 1993 a British, Irish, German and American collective encouraged artists to cease producing, selling, exhibiting or even talking about their work for a three-year period in an attempt to force the closure of galleries and art institutions. The art strike failed to attract members

— In 2003 French arts workers went on strike in response to the Government’s plans to change unemployment benefits. At least 6,000 took to the streets in Paris, the Paris Opera cancelled performances, and the Avignon festival was called off

— In 2003 the chorus of the English National Opera went on strike in protest against plans to sack one third of its members. The action cost the company more than £50,000 in box office income

Sources: stewarthomesociety.org; britishtheatreguide.info; animationguild.org; Times archives

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