Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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There are new signals today that Britain is on the brink of recession, with confirmation that the bulk of the economy is sliding rapidly into a severe downturn.
In the strongest evidence yet that the slump is accelerating, an authoritative survey of 5,000 companies reveals what it calls a menacing deterioration in prospects in the past quarter.
The findings from the British Chambers of Commerce show that conditions in the services sector, three quarters of the economy, are already at their worst since the last recession in the early Nineties.
Services businesses, from restaurants and cinemas to accountants and architects, report that their sales, orders and confidence have sunk to levels unseen since that time. Manufacturing is also being pounded, with confidence falling to the lowest ebb since the end of 2001.
Official figures added to the gloom yesterday, showing that manufacturing output plunged in May by 0.5 per cent to its lowest since last September.
The broader measure of industrial production, which includes utilities and North Sea oil, fell by an even sharper 0.8 per cent in May, to stand 1.6 per cent down on a year before - its fastest plunge for 2 years. Economists said that manufacturing was probably already technically in recession, with a fall in output in the first quarter set to be followed by a further drop in the last quarter.
The latest in a barrage of dire news over Britain's fast-deteriorating fortunes will pile pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates on Thursday. However, even after the economy's plight was starkly emphasised last week by a surprise slump in sales at Marks & Spencer, the Bank's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee is expected to spurn pleas for action as it pursues its drive to rein-in surging inflation.
David Kern, the BCC's chief economic adviser, urged the Bank to “resist misguided calls” for higher rates and to act. “A major recession can still be avoided but forceful measures are needed to improve confidence,” he said.
With the economy's woes set to ratchet up political pressure on Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister also faced warnings from the BCC that any attempt to turn to businesses to raise cash to ease financial stress on families would backfire badly.
David Frost, the BCC director-general, said: “The temptation for the Government will be to raise business taxes because the Exchequer is running out of money. This would be a catastrophe.”
Anxieties that unemployment is on course to rise sharply will be inflamed as the BCC's findings show the hiring plans of services companies plummeted over the past three months to their lowest since the end of 1993, while the Recruitment and Employment Confederation today reports demand from businesses for permanent staff falling for the first time in five years.
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The media have once again excelled themselves. All you see and hear is gloom and doom. I lived, worked and survived through the last recession in the 1980s, sure it's not an ideal situation but this is the normal "boom & bust" cycle.
We just need to remove Brown & Co. and get on with living!
Mark Harris, Cardiff, UK
A recession ... no chance. 95% of people will still be employed, on the same 'take home' pay. They may not spend as much but when you add the inevitable cut in interest rates, retail will survive. Ignoring finance and residental property, businesses will continue to manufacture, import, export, etc
Mark Boughtwood, Auckland, NZ
If you do not like the system change it.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
BoE and High Street banks should continue to raise their rates! - this will send a message that reckless spending will be punished.
Neil, cambridge, uk
Gordon Brown, his government, opposition politicians and Whitehall Mandarins are all to blame for why the UK economy is not fit-for-purpose in the 21st century. They have all based their economic theories over the past 30-years on the service industry phenomena that is highly susceptible.
david hill, huddersfield, uk
Dear Andrew from Brighton,. But before that I want to see houses been sold for £60.000 and the super rich through the door for burning money and making our cost of living more expencive.
Fabio C, London, UK
yes and a recession (globally) that we have already talked ourselves into. I don't understand the current focus on all things negative, a recession could be avoided with the right attitude and realisation that UK PLC has a lot to offer. Spouting doom and gloom may sell papers but will hurt us all.
kevin, sleaford,
So what's it going to be then:
Recession with high price inflation (rate cuts)
Recession with moderate price inflation (rate rises)
Which is the lesser of the two evils?
Paul, Coventry,
Andrew,Brighton. If the BoE cut rates now imported inflation will take off as investors dump sterling. Better purge the system of our excessive debt now than bankrupt the country in a few years. Let us never speak of Brown's economic miracle again. The man is a fool to swap real growth for debt.
Edward, London,
Yes the Bank need to ack, but they do not change the % rates The % rates need to rise to cut inflation to control the cost of ever thing that we buy and need. If the rate is cut then this will make things much harder for everyone. The public are not going to start buying , so lets move on .
oliver, earls colne,
Kirk from Rotherham, you cannot be further from the truth. You will see the deepest depression the world has ever seen by the end of 2010.
Steve, Edgware, UK
Youve had the boom , now comes the bust.
The consumer boom, especially in the services sector fuelled by the housing market spiralling out of control.
It will be interesting what happens,with inflation as it is, if the half million economic migrants move somewhere cheaper.
steve, coventry, uk
not sure it is possible to restore consumer confidence.
With surging oil prices, food prices, mortgage disasters and falling house prices, it would take a co-ordinated several-pronged approach to make people spend again.
Not sure the gov/establishment had that kind of co-ordination!
samantha, edinburgh,
We get what we expect! Change your collective expectations, and you will change your livelihoods.
Dr. Cahill, Letchworth, UK
The answer does not lie in interest rates. What is causing inflation to almost runaway ? (A) Increased Demand (B) Unresponsive Supply (C) Commodity Speculation. I believe it is all of the above. Lowering interest rates while helpful on the side of (A) and (B) will also push (D). No nett gain.
Hafiz, Serangoon, Singapore
Recession is now unavoidable. The cheap credit that drove the feelgood factor is no longer available. Reality has returned and house prices will halve in the next eighteen months as unemployment, negative equity, higher mortgage interest rates, low wage rises and higher household bills strike.
Kevin , Yorkshire, UK
Andrew (Brighton), cutting interest rates will not stimulate the economy. Banks will still be unwilling to lend money due to the high LIBOR rate; expensive oil will continue to keep inflation high by increasing manufacturing costs. The Bank should continue its present policy to reduce inflation.
Khaled, London,
No, Andrew. The Bank needs to raise interest rates to curb surging inflation. Chinese recently paid Rio 95% more than last year for iron ore. Inflation is deeply entranched now. Having seen uninterrupted boom, recession is what UK needed for sustainable growth.
Mr Thuyein Kyaw-Zaw, London, UK
Increasing interest rates may tamper (C), but also slow (A) and (B) down. Again, no nett gain. The answer lies in tackling (A), (B) and (C) each in their own right and unique way. Not quite something for the Fed, central banks or interest rates. Its left to the politicians and we are doomed.
Hafiz, Serangoon, Singapore
It is not the burden of inerest rates that afflicts the country's fortunes. It is the burden of taxation across the board which undermines us all. Rid us of all the freeloaders in so called Public Service(s) and things can only improve!
Mike O Connor, Plymouth, uk
A BoE rate cut would cause a further depreciation of sterling, exacerbating imported inflation & could well cause a run on the pound. Its now up to the Government to ease taxation through drastic spending cuts.
Steve Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
There is so little that Alistair Darling can do because all our tax money has already been spent, and more. When you have holes in your pockets like this Government, you have nothing left for a rainy day.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
U.K Plc NEEDS a Recession !! There is no avoiding it now, let it run its course ..
Andy Cooper, Oxford, UK
Andrew, brighton - I'm no Economics expert but how do you comprehend Inflation is going to fall away now? Especially if the BoE cut rates down to 3.5%? Surely the argument should be to raise the rates to cut inflation? I for one hope they do as you say though - a rate cut will do me fine!
Gurd Sohi, Edinburgh, UK
Your view of the US is not right Will, it is a mess there. Their root problems and culture differs to us and they may never recover fully. They have been more decisive but it is still deck chair re-arranging on the Titanic. I expect BoE rates to remain at least the same in 2008, they must.
Rob, Warfield, England
"The pubs are still full, people are still eating in restaurants. People are still going on holiday, sports fans still attend their chosen sport. Money IS being spent."
Well over 1 Trillion pounds has been borrowed to fund all the above - many people are continuing to spend money they don't have.
Kevin , Yorkshire, UK
The £ Sterling needs to be defended against the weak US Dollar, almost at any cost. With oil priced in Dollars, a significant deterioration in this exchange rate to, say, 1.60 would be disasterous.
There is no way that a rate cut can be afforded.
David Williams, Eastnor, England
Recession will be self fulfilling prophecy if the media keep scaremongering like this.
CA, Manchester, UK
The US Fed reckoned the risks to growth were greater than the risk of inflation and cut rates to 2%. What a pity the BofE couldn't plot the same course. The UK recession will be deeper and longer than any experienced in the US.
Will, Lincoln, UK
Unfortunately if inflation takes over, there will be no u-turn on prices. However, if the Bank of England raise interest rates to keep inflation under cotrol, interest rates can then be lowered when the time is right.
We need buy what we need and not what we want, whether it is food or clothes.
Barbara, Hereford,
Interest rates, should be raised, years of cheep credit have to be paid for, the longer we wait to raise interest rates the worse it will get. Housing is far to expensive and inflaton is a very real threat, why should savers see there money erroded because of others reckless spending,
james, bristol, uk
Andrew, America has 2% rates which are doing abolutely nothing, exept flood extra money into comoddities, which is, without doubt, killing people.
steven pill, bedale, uk
It cannot be every sector? What about the public sector, health spending £112 billion as an example. Reminds me of the 70's recession. Welcome to Labour's dream we all become reliant on public services and nanny tells us what to do.
steve tea, manchester, cheshire
Let me see now. Cut short term interest rates and inflation will 'fall away' Hmmm? Didn't excess liquidity cause inflation in the first place? And the answer is - more liquidity! No my friend, like the man said: 'Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon'. I hope the BOE stands firm.
Frank, London, UK
I think people over estimate how effective lowering interest rates is. Even if you reduce interest rates we are still going to have a recession as its driven by rising oil and food prices due to limited resources. Very low interest rates just encourage debt which is what we need to get away from.
Keith Sloan, Nr Winchester, UK
But never mind, "the fundamentals of the British economy are sound". "No more boom and bust".
Perhaps Brown should look up "hubris" in his dictionary.
Dave, Kingston, Surrey
Andrew from Brighton: inflation is not falling away any time soon. Oil prices and commodities will keep inflationary pressures. The recipe is not as simple as a rate cut.
Miguel, Milton Keynes, UK
This is rubbish, I eat + drink out a lot. The pubs are still full, people are still eating in restaurants. People are still going on holiday, sports fans still attend their chosen sport. Money IS being spent. All this does is fuel concerns where there is no need.
kirk, Rotherham, UK
The Bank needs to act decisivy and cut rates by 0.5% and then get them down to 3.5% by year end. Inflation will fall away now and what the bank needs to do is engineer a soft landing. If they allow unemployment to rise and taxes to fall to far this force the excange rate down further than the % cuts
Andrew, brighton,