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Protests over fuel price rises broke out across India yesterday, crippling transport routes in Calcutta and forcing businesses to close in software centres such as Hyderabad. In Delhi, police turned water cannons on protestors who broke through barricades at the parliament building.
Inflation data showing another big rise in the cost of living added to the woe of India's beleaguered Government. The wholesale rate of inflation leapt to an annual pace of 8.24 per cent, the fastest since August 2004 and up from 8.1percent the previous week.
Earlier this week, India became the latest Asian government to admit defeat in its fight to shield its people from rising oil prices when it raised petrol prices 11 per cent to stem huge losses, estimated £50 million a day, by the country's state-owned petrol companies. The price of diesel was raised by 9 per cent and cooking gas by 17 per cent.
Economists from Lehman Brothers, Standard Chartered and ICICI Securities said that they expect higher fuel costs to lift inflation in India to a 13-year high of 9.5per cent - nearly double the policymakers' 5percent comfort ceiling.
The Reserve Bank of India may have to raise interest rates although economic growth is moderating in the wake of a global slowdown, the analysts said.
The central bank has held rates at 7.75 per cent since March 2007, relying on forcing lenders to hold more capital in reserve to cool price rises. This week, however, it said that it was willing to use its “full range of instruments” to curb inflation.
ICICI, the Bombay broker, said in a note: “While the central bank has shown reluctance to touch policy rates, this may change soon. The bank will be worried about worsening inflation expectations on the back of this week's fuel price rises.”
Caps on petrol prices have already crumbled in countries such as Indonesia, which raised fuel prices by nearly a third last month, and Pakistan.
India's price rises will increase pressure on its coalition Government, led by the Congress Party, which has suffered local election defeats in the run-up to a general election that must be held by next May.
Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister, said that the latest move was inevitable. He said: “Our oil companies cannot go on incurring losses. This way they will have no money to import crude oil.”
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India is a tax haven for rich people.About time the govt. had a sensible tax policy where the rich are taxed progressively at higher rates.
India's tax take could easily double or triple with a few minor changes.The money can then justifiably be used to subsidise poor people's energy bills.
Rajeev, Northwood,
So the much maligned non political ECB was right after all
and all the other central banks and Economic commentators
were wrong at the end ! Rates along with inflation must
rise and rise sharply.
jpandya, zurich, ch
We are entering the unknown,but I would agree that interest rates need to rise and rise quickly in order to combat inflation.We cannot keep growing economies on borrowed money. A recession would be bad, but a recession with high inflation would be worse,far worse.The BOE need to act next month.
stephen hulton, eure, france
All the major central banks need to raise their respective base rates as soon as possible without looking for the Fed to set a lead in doing so. High food and fuel prices are more damaging to the global economy than high borrowing costs.
Paul, Coventry,
I worry that India will descend into widespread civil disorder. There is such a huge gap between rich and poor which is creating massive tensions that are seldom reported in the local media.
Manoj Patel, Chennai, India
Current monetary policy is designed to curb inflation by putting people out of their homes and making them unemployment. This apparently is the most intelligent way of controlling the economy.
Theres little central banks around the world can do to prevent food prices from rising Guillermo Ortiz
Matt, Sheffield,