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Hopes of imminent cuts in new mortgage rates were dashed yesterday as the Bank of England’s inflation judgment sent money market interest rates soaring for a second successive day.
Three-month sterling Libor, the benchmark rate used to price many loans, soared by 0.04 percentage points to 5.84 per cent, bringing the rise to 0.08 percentage points in just two days and wiping out most of the improvement of the previous three weeks.
Homebuyers and borrowers looking to remortgage were warned to brace themselves for a worsening of mortgage terms because of the sea change in expectations about base rate over the next year. The average rate for a two-year loan reached 6.64 per cent yesterday – the highest rate since 2000, according to Moneyfacts.
Until Wednesday, Libor had been falling almost daily for three weeks as traders priced in further cuts in base rate this year and took heart from the Bank’s £50 billion liquidity injection – which is now likely to rise by as much as £40 billion. It emerged last night that the UK’s biggest banks are now preparing to swap as much as £90 billion of mortgage-backed assets for Treasury bills with the Bank.
Libor’s three-week fall ended after the Bank said in its Inflation Report that inflation would rise far more than it had previously expected, so dashing hopes of any imminent base rate cut.
David Hollingworth, of London & Country, the mortgage broker, said: “The mortgage market has effectively gone back in time by one month in one day. The Libor move is disappointing because it had been coming down. For this trend to be reversing already is not a good sign. This is not going to help lenders’ funding issues, so we could see rates starting to edge up again.”
Two-year swap rates, a key benchmark for fixed-rate mortgages, have leapt from 5.27 per cent to 5.63 per cent in the space of a week.
Darren Cook, of Moneyfacts, said: “We’ll see a bit of a lag and then fixed-rate mortgage rates are going to go up again.”
Since the last base rate cut of a quarter point – on April 10 – 53 per cent of lenders have either failed to cut loan costs at all or failed to pass on the full benefit to borrowers on standard variable rates, Moneyfacts says. Banks had been starting to inch new lending rates downward, with Nationwide Building Society cutting the rate on a two-year fix from 6.1 per cent to 5.95 per cent. However, it gave warning yesterday that once funding for that tranche of mortgage money ran out, it would have to review rates again in the light of the change in Libor.
Abbey yesterday reduced the rates on its tracker mortgages and some fixed-rate deals by a token 0.05 per cent in anticipation, the lender said, of Libor falling, but it refused to rule out reversing the cuts if Libor did not decline.
Economists have altered forecasts for base rate significantly in the wake of the Inflation Report. Royal Bank of Scotland, which previously predicted a quarter-point cut to 4.75 per cent by year end, said it now expected base rate to stay at 5 per cent into 2009. Capital Economics, an arch dove, said base rate would fall only to 4.5 per cent by the year end, rather than the 4 per cent it had previously forecast.
Money Central: Are house prices heading for a 1990s-style crash?
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We will never know how much these banks have borrowed from the BOE until after the General Election assuming Labour don't win.Not much chance of that happening I think.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Buying a house? Rates going up?
Offer less, pay less, and borrow less.
Problem solved.
Endless house price inflation relies on endless easy money, which is clearly unsustainable. Its time for everyone to get real!
A Hariis, Kettering, UK
Totally agree with cww,Suffolk, interest rates will start to head north anytime now just as oil has been doing for some considerable time.
Its,in my view,all about Trends and of course demand worldwide.
Oil "drives the World" ,and will continue to do so regardless of any other energy sources.
peter, Hua Hin, Thailand
95% of all the money in existence is DEBT, created merely based on the promise of borrowers to repay the amount borrowed, plus interest.
As the US/UK housing markets are now in free fall, and people are foreclosing on their mortgages, so the money created OUT OF THIN AIR is now vanishing.
Andrew , Keighley, UK
What is the running total that the BofE has dished out to these crocked banks and what is the average rating of the securities accepted by the Government as collateral?
Any one out there got the figures???
AWilliams, Cradley Heath,
John, the bechmark rate is 3 months. The 5.07167% that you quote is the overnight rate. No-one would fund a 20 plus year mortgage based upon such a volatile price. Some might say using 3months for such a long period is inappropriate (passim NR) but that is the key liquidity and funding base for bank
Colin , West Wickham, England
The banks only put down rates for savers. They increased mortgage rates. This means they are charging ALL of us more. Isn't it time that the government had the balls to be constructive for a change. Look at the ailing sterling exchange. That itself will destroy our finances.
Neil Brown, Maidstone,
The BOE is not allowed to make cheap money available to Northern Rock. It is a breach of EC competition rules. Northern Rock has provided an undertaking that it will not be in any best buy tables to avoid unfair competition since it is 'risk free' and government backed.
Rahul, London,
Agree with David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
The banks are making buck out of a perceived crisis!
BOE base rate falls, banks won't pass it on, instead they increase their rates. If they can get away with it for at least a few months , they'll have made a few extra quid for the coffers.
Neil, Bathgate, Scotland
Misinformation.
3 month LIBOR is 5.07167% not 5.84%
See http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=141
John, London, UK
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