Andrew Sullivan
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If you had decided to spend the past month on Mars and missed the slick Democratic convention and the surreal Republican riposte, you could look at the polls right now and wonder if you’d missed anything at all.
Vice-presidential nominees Joe Biden and Sarah Palin, the stunning barrage of lies and smears of the McCain campaign, the cautious conventionality of the Obama machine, the lingering bitterness of the Clinton cultists, the invasion of Georgia: none of it seems to have made much of a difference. The national polling reveals a classic consecutive convention bounce for both parties - something so obvious and boring it could have been predicted a year ago. And by the middle of last week the race was back to roughly where it started.
With one addition. The past few days have seen a marked surge in the polls for the Democrat. The fascination with the mendacious (see my blog, andrewsullivan. com, for the details) religious fanatic from Alaska has faded somewhat. Sarah Palin’s favourables went from +17 to +1 in six days as voters realised there was less than nothing behind the marketing and the cynicism of this sinister and philistine Manchurian candidate. But Americans have discovered that their economy is in what could be the biggest crisis since the Great Depression. They knew they were in trouble before. Now, however, they cannot deny the massive mess they and their leaders have put themselves in.
The reasons for this are well known. Since the mid1970s, most American incomes - with the marked exception of the very big - have stagnated as even growth in productivity has been swamped by far fiercer global competition and freer trade. Americans, resistant to the idea that their incomes cannot keep growing at the free-lunch pace of the 1940s to the 1970s, decided to get rich the easy way. They borrowed to reflate in the 1980s, played the stock market in the 1990s and gambled on the real-estate boom in the first decade of the 21st century.
The shrewd ones succeeded in gaining and then selling before it came crashing down. Most, as usual, didn’t. The greed that led many ordinary Americans to take out loans they had no way of repaying and the recklessness with which banks and mortgage companies satisfied that hunger are, in retrospect, staggering. Both the banks and the borrowers deserve their comeuppance. And a truly conservative, free-market administration would be happy to let them fail.
But Bush Republicanism is not and has never been anything like conservatism. Its government takeover of firm after firm this year outdoes the statism of the 1970s. Bush Republicanism has cut taxes regardless of fiscal reality and boosted domestic spending at a pace not seen since the Franklin Roosevelt era.
The president has never told Americans they cannot have it all; and, indeed, this trust-fund baby who never had to balance a personal budget led the way. In his term of office, he has added a staggering $32 trillion to the unfunded government liabilities future generations of Americans will have to bear. And he has borrowed and borrowed from the Chinese to ensure that the consequences of his fiscal madness will never come back to punish him.
But he failed in this, as in every other part of his disgraceful record. Just as his Iraq incompetence came back to haunt him, so his surreal economics has finally returned the favour. Watching the feckless Bush administration now is an almost perfect coda to the surreally anticonservative policies it has pursued from the beginning.
As the financial historian Ron Chernow told The New York Times last week: “We have the irony of a free-market administration doing things that the most liberal Democratic administration would never have been doing in its wildest dreams.” That has been the story for eight years: spend, spend, spend, borrow, borrow, borrow, lie, lie, lie. The one liberal policy the Bush administration did not follow was any serious regulation or oversight of the banking and lending industries. And so they did not merely make the American government bankrupt, but they enabled the private sector to head directly off that cliff as well.
Of the two candidates, one might hope that John McCain, who was once a fiscal conservative, scourge of excessive spending and believer in tight money, might have something to say. He opposed the Bush tax cuts in the first place as something Americans could not afford. And he voted against the budget-busting Medicare prescription-drug entitlement, the biggest expansion of the welfare state since Lyndon Johnson.
However, as he jettisoned every principle he ever held to appeal to the increasingly unhinged religious base of the Republican party, he abandoned fiscal conservatism as well. He now pledges not to change a jot or tittle of the Bush tax cuts, even as debt soars. He will not reform entitlements. He absurdly argues that the budget can be balanced by trimming a fraction of pork-barrel spending. And he still insists that the basics of the economy are sound.
And his response to the current crisis? At first, back in the primaries, he denied there was any such crisis. Then he turned populist. Last week he was railing against the greed of Wall Street. If markets need a steady hand in the next president, they should avoid McCain as the distracted, impulsive cynic he has revealed himself to be in this campaign.
Barack Obama is only slightly less disappointing. Instead of telling Americans in no uncertain terms that their recklessness has consequences, he too is peddling populist blather. He too will spend money the government doesn’t have to protect small-time borrowers from the consequences of their folly. He too blames companies that operated within the rules as dictated by Congress for maximising their profits by irresponsible lending. He is fiscally more responsible than McCain – and his economic proposals would add less to US debt. But he will not cut spending and is not the fiscal conservative the economy needs. And he is playing a conventional game of economic demagoguery to win votes.
I suspect he will be successful. The truth is: however hard McCain tries to change personality and policy to meet the next news cycle and polling, he cannot escape the simple fact of his Republicanism. He cannot play the maverick now – after abandoning his previous common sense to embrace the Bush-Cheney economic madness of the past eight years. If he had stuck to his principles of 2000, he might have had a chance as these Bush chickens came home to pelt the Republicans with droppings six weeks before election day.
McCain sold his soul a long time ago; in the past few weeks he has been auctioning it on eBay. He deserves to lose. On the economy, though, Obama is not exactly demonstrating that he deserves to win either.

Andrew Sullivan is an author, academic and journalist. He holds a PhD from Harvard in political science, and is a former editor of The New Republic. His 1995 book, Virtually Normal: An Argument About Homosexuality, became one of the best-selling books on gay rights. He has been a regular columnist for The Sunday Times since the 1990s, and also writes for Time and other publications.
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Accurate in regard to McCain and Palin - in fact too lenient. The doddering lunacy of McCain is frightening as is the Christian fundamentalist, know-nothing Palin who clearly is one who will shamefully lie about anything, including her family. Too harsh on Obama. He is largely hemmed in.
Wendell Murray, Kennett Square PA, USA
Excellent analysis Andrew. Here's the problem with Americans. They want the person in the most important position in America to be just like them. Why would you want the American President to be someone you could beat in Scrabble? At this time in history we need better than a C student.
Steve, Collegeville, USA
At least McCain has a soul to sell - Obama doesn't even have one. If Obama wins, we are sunk - higher taxes, gay marriage, gays in the military, infanticide, ban on guns, and who knows what else the socialist white-hating Obama will do to destroy our country
mark, youngstown, OH,
The only part of sullivan's article holding a kernel of truth is, sadly, that neither candidate is the answer for America, her economy, or her future. But to say McCain has sold his soul, while simultaneously excusing O'Bama from such accusation, seems foolhardy and infalmmatory at best.
robert, Gilroy, USA
I don't understand what Sillivan's true motive is behind admonishing Bush for 'jettisoning every principle for an increasingly unhinged religous base'?
What does religion have to do with an economic disaster? And isn't the one admonishment US Christians are immune from is having no principles?
Sam Kocsis, Calgary, Canada
Dear British Media and British People,
Please don't believe at all we in America give a flying flip about your insignificant country and least of all your views on our politics. Your country is over run by other cultures due to your liberal immigration and your identity as a nation is lost.
Chad, Atlanta, US A!
So refreshing to see a column like this in a "conservative" paper. We in Europe mustn't get sucked into the ludicrous tribal splits of the States (where, it seems, you're either a gay-loving anti-abortion pro-immigration godless hippie, or you're a religio-nut gun-totin' black-hating oil-driller.)
Miker G, Folkestone, UK
The Alan Greenspan idea that you can spend your way out of recession seems as ludicrous as those 'Eat 10 meals a day and still loose weight' diets advertised every day, yet not only the Bush but many expert economists fell for it too don't forget.
Paul Smith, Teddington,
Your analysis couldn't have been more dead on! My countrymen live in a fantasy world in which they are spoon fed daily lies by Fox News and the Republican Party. They grow dumber and fatter every day while their world is coming apart all around them. Can I seek intelligence asylum in Europe?
Timothy, Birmingham, USA
"Obama is the president wanted by the rest of the world." Is that right? You want the Obamanation? Then by all means, take him off our hands to wreak havoc in YOUR land... Take him with our blessing (you'll need it)! Oh and Andrew, would you be the one McCain supposedly sold his soul to?
Carolyn, Wisconsin, USA
I have news for the Europeans. If our country fails guess which ones are next????? Your countries!!! Imagine the destruction of your export industries with an immense welfare state to support. Your fall would be greater than ours. The fall then would extend to the rest of the world. Think my friends
Dave, Tampa, USA
1. literally people do not have souls, this is a fiction
2. metaphorically people almost never have souls even as a metaphor
3. please do not write anything else unless you have something to say - you may lose your soul!
david, london, uk
The Americans have lived beyond their collective means since Reagan .This type of capitalism is not sustainable in a world of global warming when billions of dollars will have to be committed to energy efficiency. We don't need the rich,it's time for co-operatives and social enterprise capitalism.
John D, Gateshead, England
So Sullivan knows both candidates innermost motivations. He is deep. Look at that pensive look in his photo.
But he betrays his cynicism with the description of Palin as a religious fanatic. Me thinks he protest a bit much. We all have beliefs of that can be call fringe by others. Why, go there?
Steve, Indy, USA
Many falsehoods in here. Are they intentional or do they betray ignorance? "He now pledges not to change a jot or tittle of the Bush tax cuts, even as debt soars." McCain is actually for REDUCTIONS in corporate taxes. Because private companies create jobs. An when they do, they generate tax revenu
Steve, Indy, USA
Palin is a Manchurian candidate? Recently Sullivan was insisting that Palin was a reckless and impetuous pick - but now she's apparently been groomed for years by the Christianists for just this purpose? Sorry, you can't have it both ways. It was either a conniving pick or a naive one, not both.
Mike, Brighton,
"[Obama] blames companies that operated within the rules as dictated by Congress for maximising their profits by irresponsible lending"?? Corporate officers are held to a legal standard of fiduciary responsibility, not just to the standard of "anything they can get away with for short term profit."
Whit, Rockingham, VT, USA
What can a politician do when told that international catastrophe will accompany any action other than immediate government expenditure for rescue? The free market accounting profession, both on your side of the pond and ours, got us into this mess, but can't get us out without government dollars?
Bert Gold, Frederick, MD, USA
The candidates sell their souls to win and have to pay for it when they are elected by doing their masters bidding. The American people are too unrealistic and bloated to knuckle down, they are living in a dream world of big cars, big houses, big guts and small brains, they elected Bush, say no more
Jim, Huntington Beach, USA
To charactorize two canidates for the presidency of an ally as "dumb" or "dumber" is classless. This article shows not only a lack of understanding of the global financial situation, but a writer who is only concerned with pushing his own political views on the reader. How about some objectivity?
Fred , Boise, Idaho, USA
The author may want to look up "surreal". There is nothing of "fantastic imagery and incongruous juxtaposition of subject matter" in this. This is to be expected of a mediocre President.
Phil, Texas
Philip E Tripp, Greenville, TX, USA
They invaded the Peach State?
Hugo, Rome,
You should not have referred to Sarah Palin as "..this sinister and philistine Manchurian candidate..". Now she'll have to scour Alaska trying to find someone to explain to her what that means.
Lewis Winders, Tasmania, Australia
Obama's entitlements will add millions to the national debt. He also recently backpedaled on the tax cuts, saying they may have to stay in place in the future. Obama's reaction, the usual. Inaction.
McCain Bill in 2005, proposed oversight of Fanny Mae but Obama voted No with his co-horts
Janet Dobbs, Philadelphia,
I agree with the analysis and its conclusions.Great outlook ...
Peter, Shelby, MI
PETER A KOVALSZKI, SHELBY TOWNSHIP,
While I have no love for Bush, I think the world has forgotten the billions spent after 9-11, the billions spent after hurricanes Katrina & Rita & to aid the tsunami victims. These disasters were extraordinary. Only Congress can pass laws to regulate the greedy banks and oil cos. who made billions.
Nan, Wassaic, USA
The present mess is a world wide economics disaster undeterred and abetted by all the world's politicians. World class economic AND political minds will solve it. None of our current candidates should claim economic expertise. Bush certainly no expert is doing exactly the right thing - for now.
Bob Hall, New York, United States
Very good article. The last three Republican presidents described themselves as 'fiscal conservatives', and yet recklessly borrowed to fund tax cuts and spending on the military.
John McCain also describes himself as a fiscal conservative, so I think you all know what to expect..
Owen, London, UK
TG you Eurolibs don't vote in OUR election. If BHO wins (by fair means or foul), this world will be a very scary place. There won't be anyone left to save your bacon over there across the pond and as for us here, we'll be burnt to a crisp if the emperor without any clothes is POTUS.
Mary, Los Angeles,
Refreshing straight-talk.
Mike L, Chippenham,
There is always hope that once this election is over the winner will ignore their more ridiculous, populist promises and listen to the clever people that each candidate has advising them. After all politicians have been known to break some of their election promises before.
David Lea-Smith, Edinburgh, U.K.
So I guess we have to look to Europe for candidates who tell the truth and brilliant yet principled bankers then?
John Templeton, Philadelphia, USA
Ralph Nader said it best. The only difference between the Democrats and the Republicans is the speed at which their knees hit the floor when big business walks into the room. We have to figure out a way to do better.
Roy , Guthrie, OK, USA
Anyone who listens and watches McCain can only feel that this old guy is dumber than Bush and far more dangerous because of his apparent lack of general knowledge.
Obama is the President wanted by the rest of the world.
john, colombo, sri lanka
Well, Andrew, if McCain & Obama are so similiar I guess you'll just have to vote for the tall, dark and handsome one to break the tie.
Dan , NYC, NY
US is heading for the cliff - and boy have they worked hard to keep their heads in the sand while it happens. Europeans scratch their heads and wonder where it all went so wrong for them....and remember Bush/Cheney. Thank god they're somewhere else.
Jim Kennedy, London,
Kudos to your well said and well thought out article. The title of the article says it all!
Julienne, Kansas City, USA
There is not much difference between American politicians and British ones. The problem is that the electorate want it all - low taxes, great services, strong military, cheap education, healthcare - guess what - it CAN'T happen!
Andre, Portland, USA