If you are hoping for an early end to the woes on the stock markets and in the world’s economy, you’ve come to the wrong column. The first week of this year’s second half has taken us deeper into the quicksand. The grizzlies are licking their chops.

Excited theories about how this or that industry or region were going to escape the downturn are being replaced by resigned acceptance. That is good: without surrendering we can’t reach the nadir.

Since 2003 the FTSE 100 index had an almost uninterrupted climb until last year, when the chart forms what looks in retrospect like the dreaded double top — twin peaks that are a classic sign of a market set to head downwards.

As Jessica Bown reports elsewhere, the FTSE has been highly misleading this year. Oil companies now account for about half its value and the booming price of crude has naturally sent their shares rocketing.

This has disguised gloom elsewhere, particularly among banks, retailer and housebuilders. Consequently the index has bounced around between 5,400 and 6,400 this year, buoyed until recently by false hopes that the global credit crunch was no more than a blip. But if the FTSE falls decisively below 5,400 it will signal that the optimists are finally giving up the struggle.

The Investment Management Association says money going into funds has slowed to a trickle, and much of that is being invested in bond funds. Good shares as well as bad are being dragged down, though I still believe the likes of Tesco, British American Tobacco and the utilities will maintain their dividends. So, if you don’t have to sell, hold on to them.

A real concern is that lack of business may tempt some financial advisers to come up with ever more fantastical schemes in an effort to keep their commissions rolling in.

A Virgin Money survey suggests that advisers see emerging markets as a good story to cheer clients looking for a way out of the impasse. I would be very wary of such tales. Brazil, China and India are good long-term bets, but if recession really grips Europe and the US, those countries will be affected too.

We are seeing major shifts in the world economic pattern which no-one can predict. Until the picture becomes clearer, stick to what you know, stay flexible and avoid the riskier bets.

WHILE I welcome the decision by our beleaguered chancellor, Alistair Darling, to widen the scope of credit unions, I hope he isn’t opening the door to fraud. Credit unions will be allowed to liberalise membership criteria, embrace a wider range of customers, let groups and not just individuals join, pay interest on deposits and charge market rates for chequebooks and money transfers.

Members will no longer have to have a closely defined “common bond”, such as being employees of the same company, and the minimum age for becoming an officer is being cut to 16.

The genius of the credit-union idea is its simplicity. It puts lenders and borrowers together without the middle man (banks) taking a cut. Like building societies and other mutuals, it relies on a few people making it work for the benefit of their community.

I have no doubt that the last thing Darling wants to do is damage credit unions, but that is always the danger in tampering with a winning formula.

Having 16-year-olds as officers will pave the way for school credit unions. Suitably supervised, they could be a great way for kids to learn about money. Widening the concept, though, will let strangers into groups where now everyone knows everyone, and can therefore check on the feckless and reckless.

THE €40m (£32m) Paris court verdict against eBay will have been the last straw for thousands of the people who hover nervously on the fringes of eBay, fascinated by its possibilities but afraid of its risks.

The judge decided that eBay has not been doing enough to ensure that Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior goods sold via the site were not counterfeit, and sadly there are always plenty of mugs prepared to believe that a £10 Louis Vuitton handbag is the real thing.

Legal opinion is that this verdict turns the site from passive host to active broker, with the responsibilities that entails. However, eBay intends to appeal against the verdict, so don’t hold your breath.

Google “eBay problems” and 12,600 websites instantly pop up. If it isn’t lax policing of fake Guerlain or Givenchy perfume causing anguish, then it is goods either not arriving or falling horribly short of what was promised.

Selling is an entirely different matter, and many of my friends have happily emptied their attics onto eBay.

The key to securing your money as a seller is to go through the Paypal payments system. It is not flawless, but it acts as a reference point for disputes, and the same goes for buyers.

While eBay itself is notoriously poor at sorting out problems, the regulars reckon Paypal is much less hassle. Credit-card issuers can help too.

One of the many useful internet advisers, Terry Gibbs on iwantcollectibles.com , sums it up neatly: “Sooner or later you will have problems buying on eBay.”

So, if you are going to take the plunge, I suggest building into your calculations a proportion of losses — on one in every ten transactions, say — and never, but never, part with money you cannot afford to lose.

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