Gerard Baker, US Editor
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to The Sunday Times
In headline terms it might have looked like a split decision. In the latest instalment of the long-running Democratic primary election saga on Tuesday, Barack Obama won North Carolina and Hillary Clinton won Indiana. These results went roughly as expected – one for each camp.
So at least in terms of the state-wide winners it was a tie, and the race looks set to go on through the final few primaries in the next month.
But beneath the headlines, this was clearly a triumphant night – and perhaps even a decisive one — for Mr Obama.
First, the margins of victory in the two states were crucial. Mr Obama strolled home by 14 percentage points in North Carolina, while Mrs Clinton squeaked by in Indiana by just a couple of points.
That means Mr Obama will almost certainly emerge from the night with a net gain in delegates to the party’s presidential nominating convention. His lead among elected delegates — who are awarded in rough proportion to votes cast — now stands at well over 150, out of more than 3,000 in all, and it seems now completely inconceivable that he could lose in the delegate count with just a handful of states now left to vote.
The night’s results also gave Mr Obama a secure lead in the popular vote. This is, in strict procedural terms, irrelevant. The total vote cast across the country for each candidate is not what counts. It is delegates that matter in the race for the party’s nomination.
But in political terms the vote totals matter enormously. One of Mrs Clinton’s remaining slender hopes of persuading the party that she should be the nominee lay in finishing the primary contests ahead in the popular vote. This — unless she can convince the party that the disqualified primaries in Michigan and Florida should count — is now all but impossible.
The second reason it was a bad night for Mrs Clinton was that she needed a much clearer victory and didn’t get one. Even a straight split in the outcome in the two states would not have been enough to keep her in the race with a serious chance. She needed to win, not just claim a dead heat.
The arithmetic is now so firmly against Mrs Clinton that it would take a miracle for her to win the nomination. Mr Obama is close enough to a Democratic victory to taste it. His lead in delegates elected in state primaries and caucuses is, as we have seen, almost insurmountable. He now trails in so-called super-delegates, the 800 or so senior party officials who hold the contest in their hands, by merely a handful. All that means he now needs to win only about 37 per cent of delegates in the remaining primaries, and the super-delegates who have not yet declared their support.
A third reason for Mr Obama to celebrate Tuesday night was that the political momentum has clearly shifted back to the Illinois senator. He has had a terrible last two months. He lost three straight primaries — in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. He appeared to be sinking in a mire of ranting reverends and condescending comments about the white working-class. Most worryingly, Mrs Clinton seemed to be having some success in convincing people that the liberal, slightly aloof Mr Obama might not be able to win a general election contest.
But his victory in North Carolina and the impossibly close outcome in Indiana have righted the boat.
A few more primaries remain — beginning next week in West Virginia. But the real struggle now moves to the minds of the super-delegates. These party grandees have been steadily moving into Mr Obama's camp in the last month even as his campaign has begun to stall.
After his very strong showing in Tuesday’s primaries, that movement is likely to become a stampede. An end to this apparently interminable contest is in sight at last.

Gerard Baker is United States Editor and an Assistant Editor of The Times. He joined in 2004 from the Financial Times, where he had spent over ten years as Tokyo correspondent and Washington Bureau Chief. His weekly oped column appears on Fridays
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its unfortunate that clinton is still looks at race and color. OBAMA may be an afro american,being a kid of an african and american but his political prowess cannot be compared with that of clinton. the guy is just too sharp for the former first lady and its thumbs up for him. just give up madam;;;
onesmus kamau, nairobi, kenya
Hillary is a very great fighter and i think she would make a good head of state, but i find one issue i disagree with her and those holding the same view is to say that she should be the nominee because she is more popular among the white voters. a head of state is for everybody.
Fred sengendo, London, UK
Hillary is an unsweety big girl, is that the very reason she should quit now?--i wonder that is the very "inconvenient truth" of this society.
annie, bj, china
I would have loved to see Mrs Clinton as the president of USA, but her basing presidency on the skin color is unacceptable!... please americans vote wisely. vote Obama. I believe He is cabable of uniting the pple of America, white and blacks, He has true leadership.
He has what it takes
MUENI MENGO, NAIROBI, KENYA
America is seen to be the hope of the world, a country of opportunity for equality and unity of the citizens has always primed on race differences. I don´t understand how presidential candidate of such great nation can base her election on the basis of her skin coulor. PRESIDENT MUST UNITE
Sayon CAMARA, Bratislava, Slovak republic
I strongly hope Hillary doesn't win; this isn't a sexist hope, as some will claim, I don't like her PERSONALLY. I believe that between her moral relativism re: Bill, and the shrewish way she comes off to anyone who doesn't toe her line, there's no way she deserves to win.
Chris, Evanston,
Perharps Obama will become electable if he denounced Harvard, erased his Senatorial records in Illinois, his constitutional law lecture or is upended. Funny that the goal post keeps shifting, "Elitist," fund raised, his pastor, blue states, inept bowling skills, and all sort. America needs fixing.
Olaitan Eyiowuawi, Essex, UK
Does anybody believe that anything other than a Democrat victory in November will alienate or change the basic policies of the present regime? The currency is worth about as much as the housing stock ( toilet paper). The war will have cost 2 trillion by 2012. Stop buggering about and elect Obama.
John Wood, Uxbridge, UK
Obviously, people are not considering the strength of Hillary's suporters. We are fierce, determined, passionate, and loyal. We are Hillary's miracle and we are going to deliver. And IN Republicans were voting for BO because he is the weaker candidate, not Hillary. I know people who did this.
Laura, Lafayette, IN,
Barack would have won Indiana if not for Rush Limbaugh". Rush's scheme to get Republicans in Indiana to vote for Hillary seem to have worked with over 7% of her votes coming from the conservative group. Barack is now set to win this nomination even with the Republicans voting against him.
Sam, Pensacola, FL, USA
Hannes - they got elected because they weren't all that liberal. Kennedy and Johnson were socially conservative, Clinton was the model 'centrist' Democrat. Carter's win was a product of Watergate backlash and he was a one-termer. Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry - true liberals, and look where it got them.
David , New Jersey, USA
"He lost three straight primaries in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania" - all three are states incremental for a candidate to secure in November for national victory. Given Obama's poor showings in these core states, it seems a sad inevitability that the Democrats, with him as their nominee, will lose
Jennifer , London,
Sarah from 'over the pond' hastens te brand Mr. Obama as 'very liberal'. No arguments given. She either expects or hopes for him to be 'crushed' in November. Again no arguments, beyond her statement that liberals are generally crushed. One wonders how Kennedy, Johnson, Carter and Clinton got elected
Hannes Minkema, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
On this side of the Pond, "liberals" are generally crushed at the national level - to the point that they almost always adopt the pretense that they are something else - say, centrist or moderate.
Obama is easily the most liberal candidate in my memory. Look for him to be crushed in November.
Sarah Bellum, Thousand Oaks, California, USA
McCain will win if Democrats keep fighting one another. Looking at the hateful things democrats are saying to one another shows how weak and divded we truly are. If Obama or Hilary really cared about changing this country they would run together as a power team and then all of us democrats would win
Michelle Torio, San Francisco, USA
Odd that so many American commentators seem to think of Obama as being "extreme left", when he is arguably the most rightwing of this year's Democrat contenders, and certainly on the right judged by European standards.
Kate, Southampton, UK
She is receiving a miracle right now, she be leaving the race. I take that as a true miracle
James Tomasi, Charlotte, NC, USA
I support him, a medical professional in pennsylvania. He wants to improve the country. Hiliary was sticking to a gas tax break that 230 ecconomists told her wouldn't work. Nancy Pelosi even said forget it, but she has been ranting about it to try and get elected.
phsyther2, erie, usa
Obama will win in November simply because there are now many more Democrats registered than Republicans.
Republicans are dispirited McCain is not creating excitement. The far right will stay home in droves.
It will take arm twisting for Hill's minions to vote for Obama, but it will happen.
Scott Mercer, Hollywood, California, USA
To all those who cant stand the idea of having the nation's first black President...all I can say is, " hee-hee".
sky, Orlando, USA
Sen Clinton has made this campaign more negative than necessary. I believe it is still possible for her to drop out of the race and be an agent of unity for Democrats to win in November. Questioning Sen Obama electability was not a smart move as well as not showing empathy for Re Wright issue
gene, herndon, USA
Obama will lose in November because he will be exposed as an ultra liberal socialist, AND because of his long association with an anti-american pastor. We will see Rev. Wright 24/7 in November.
Peter, Houston,
Obama may have a corner on part of the market ... what about those he hasn't won ... older men, rural america, people without college, non-black minorities, blue-collar workers.
Who's supporting him? A lot comes from population centers - but not from the majority of the counties - only a few.
Doug, Cincinnati, USA
Obama has more than earned the nomination--he's run a much better, more positive campaign than Clinton. I'm not a Hillary basher, in fact I would vote for her if she were the nominee--but Obama has the momentum and remained incredibly calm and focused--good things to have in a President.
Judtih, Los Angeles,
Sen Clinton has missed her best chance to drop out with honor. Clearly, the people of Indiana have helped her by showing her a glorious exist. Now she's still in. Honestly, how will she'll the nomination? Maybe she believes so much that she'll the next president and will run as 3rd party candidate.
Ron, Carbondale, USA
Hillary will wait until 31 May, when rule-makers decide what to do about the Florida /Michigan votes-- even though her campaign admitted earlier that those votes were invalid. The last primaries happen shortly after. From now til then she will get more phone calls saying "get out!"
Richard, London,
Hillary and Bill will be great cheerleaders for the Democratic party between June and November, but she will not be on the tickets. Jim Webb of Virginia is much more likely. I think Hillary will stay in the race until May 20th, then cheerlead. Obama will beat McCain by large margins in Nov.
Margaret, La Mirada, USA
American politics will never cease to amaze me - how the wife of the most bent US President in the past 70 years can even be considered for the role beats me.
HG, Swindon, Wilts
The question is whether Obama gets a rush of superdelegates. On one hand, they should want to avoid the possibility that she wins 3 of the next 4 big, making him look weaker. On the other, if I'm concerned about the demographics that he struggles with, then he didn't do anything to convince me.
dvl, chicago, us
I respect Sen. Clinton, but feel her campaign's emphasis has, in light of Sen. Obama's growing strength, become myopically focussed on her as a person, rather than how she can serve the nation. I believe it is time for her to bow out of the contest, as gracefully as she can manage to do so.
Robert Stone, Ann Arbor, USA
Iraq lost a Hussein and the US maybe is gonna gain a Hussein....wonder if he'll use that Smashing Pumpkins track 'disarm' in his campaign to DISARM AMERICA?
kevin, Lincoln, UK
Hillary needs to swallow her pride and think about the good of the democratic party.
Jama barreh, Austin, TX
It hurts me to my core to think that we are 50 years plus past the civil rights struggles and we still are a divided nation. I read some of the online comments about Obqama and cannot believe that people have so much hatred for a black man who is everything that they say he should be.
Donna, Wilmington, USA
I agree that Hillary should now drop out for the good of the Democratic party, but I would love to see her become senate majority leader. Harry Reed has been ineffective, to say the least, and with Hillary at the helm, the Democrats would be sure to have a much stronger margin after November.
Lynne , Lima, U.S.
Disagree with Jerry. I am a registered Republican who grew up in UK wher I voted for Thatcher and MajorI have voted for Bush and then switched to Kerry .I do not consider myself a left Democrat more of an Independent who realises the Intergrity of this country is at stake.Go Obama
Garath , philadelphia, usa
It's sheer journalistic laziness to continue reporting that Obama had lost "three straight primaries" in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania. Two states had nominating contests between Texas and Pennsylvania, both of which Obama won handily.
David, Charlotte, NC, USA
There are enough whites that take offense at Wright and Michelle there is no way he will win. McCain will have his one term. Hillary will be back and get the nod. By then Condi will be bitten by the bug and stretch her legs. Some people will really have problems. Which to support.
dave, Saltzburg, Austria
Obama is now more electable in November. First, his ideas and his spirit will pull the majority of independents - 36% of the electorate - into the Democratic column. Second, McCain won't be able to offload Bush's baggage: we're fed up with
Iraq, cruelty, incompetence, cronyism, and the cash crunch.
Arvid F. Sponberg, Valparaiso, IN,
Boy, it seems we have abad memories. "B. Obama lost 3 straight primaries - TX, OH, PA" Is that true? DIdn't he win the TX caucus effectively making that a draw? What about Wyoming and Mississippi? (He won both quite convinclingly and these came between OH and PA) And then there is Guam..
Alan, West Chester, USA
Hillary is dividing the Democrats.
It is time for her to drop out, for the good of the party.
Ryan, Saint Cloud, MN, USA
Unelectable? Chris, you must be confused. Let me fill you in. Apparently, the majority of the democratic party doesn't find him unelectable. (See any media published in the last six months - I hope that won't be too hard for you.)
Vernier's got it right (and from Riyadh no less!).
James, Andover, MA, USA
If McCain wants to talk about Obama's former pastor that is just fine. Obama has defused it before, he will defuse it again. Clinton supporters are saying Obama is unElectable in the GE because they are losing. When they really take a look at McCains "bush third term", the will change their minds.
Nate, Roanoke, USA
How much would it cost Clinton to bribe the superdelegates to vote for her? Does she have enough money? That's what it will take for her to win.
George Linn, Denver,
I disagree that Hillary is running a mean campaign. Obama has been just as nasty. But people prefer to view the world with rose colored classes.
Truth be told, Obama is simply not a strong candidate. He has not received a majority of the popular vote. No amount of Obama spin can change that
beaumount l., Chicago, USA
Hillary should drop out--her gas tax relief was a step towards communism-same as her health plan--we are America - not the USSR-Russia--we need a change in Washington--not sure if Obama can do it-but it is a start.
Robert V--Minnesota
robert vicari, chisholm, usa
Kyle's right. Obama is an extremely flawed candidate and really only popular among rather left Democrats, a constituency that does not represent the lion's share of the American electorate. I don't see independents voting for him. Lot of vile associations you could argue actually represent Obama.
Jerry, Mordor, USA
You've actually alluded to the next possible spin by Clinton:
"After his very strong showing in Tuesdays primaries, that movement is likely to become a stampede."
If this doesn't happen, when delegates almost assuredly want to been seen as supporting the winner, it will be spun as weakness.
Bill Jones, Germantown, USA
There's one innaccuracy in this--it refers to straight wins by Clinton, but Obama won Mississippi and Wyoming.
Nadia Hassan, Alpharetta, GA, USA
To all Obama supporters. You don't understand that your open expressions of hate for Hillary, your short political vision based on an idea of change and the sense of belonging to a movement that has not been defined yet (political, social or just a movement for him to win the election) divide us
leon, Minneapolis, USA
I can not speak for others, but I am looking forward to a
White House with 2 intellegent people, representing our
country and showing the world that we truly believe that any-
one, regardless of color can lead our country. As long as they
mantain a soft, and strong educated voice to the world.
Margaret Geisler, Brewster, USA
At this point all Hilary Clinton is doing is giving further ammunition to the Republican party. If she truly wants the Democrats to win in November and not just to see herself in the White House as President, she could gracefully exit the race immediately and actively support Obama.
Jan, San Diego, USA
Would somebody please tell Hillary that her high horse has been hit by sniper fire, broken it's second leg and needs to be euthanised.
Sam, Little Rock, USA
The only way this will end is if the vast majority of super delegates officially get behind Obama.
Obama is toast in November. Him being a member of a racist, anti-American church for 23 years makes him unelectable. The affirmative action racist candidate will lose. So what do the supers do?
Robert A. August, Cincinnati, USA
The proportional European method the Democrats use to choose their nominee is the real cause of Clinton's failure here. If the party had chosen a method reflective of the electoral college vote in November's general election, she would already be the nominee.
Jim Faucett, San Antonio, USA
The Democrat Party and its supporters are about to lose the unlosable election. Senator Obama has won states which are not critical to the success of the Dems. The states he has won are solidly Republican. Clinton won states like Pennsylvania and Ohio which are critical to the Democrats chances.
Andrew Murphy, Blackheath, UK
Hillary has no chance at being the senate majority leader, she is just too despised by many of her fellow democratic senators. She also ruined any chance at being VP, not that she would have accepted such a position, by slinging mud at Obama.
Magnus, New York, USA
Hillary Clinton has run one of the most mean-spirited and disgusting campaigns in memory. Obama 'put her away' weeks ago. The only reason she is still in the race is because the liberal US media remain infatuated with the Clintons. She will not be the Senate Majority Leader..no one wants that!
John Pelham, Lookout Mountain, Tennessee, USA
It is a testament to how weak a candidate Clinton is if Obama can beat her. He isn't a very good candidate- extreme left, no experience, and a slew of controversies. But the American left doesn't vote based on reason- they vote based on faith and empty platitudes. Very sad.
Kyle, Detroit, MI, USA
"He lost three straight primaries in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania."
He won Texas by 5 delegates. Between Ohio and Pennsylvania, he won decisive victories in Mississippi and Wyoming. No one is immune to the relentless spin of her campaign.
Matthew PArker, Houston, United States
Her husband is considered as the "black president". Senator Clinton promises to run with this legacy. Well, I think the greatest lagacy will be for her to step down so she will not be the person who unsuccessfully blocks the bridge that will unite the races and erase misconceptions for one another.
Collinwise Osei-Aboagye, Laurel, usa
I just find it said that as Americans we're silly enough to vote for a presidential nominee based on minimal facts. Everything about the Obama campaign is naive - change (to what?), healing divisions (he has the most liberal voting record in the Senate and almost no record of bipartisanship), etc.
Brady, Linneus, MO, USA
Americans want not just change but absolute change and will get that via Obama, not the dynastic choices of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton. The quintessential hero these days is The American Voter.
Valerie Sanford, Los Angeles, CA., USA
Obama is preferred by all segments of the US population, with the exception of less educated whites and older white women. College graduates, college students, the Academia, Liberals, Progressives, African Americans, the new and the young vote - all enthusiastically support Obama.
John, Florida, USA
Sadly, I fear Mr. Baker is mistaken. For a long time, now, the arithmetic has shown Obama will win the nomination. Yet Clinton ignores math. She will go on until the convention, or she can no longer afford to spend her own money, or she can successfully ruin Obama's chances, whichever comes first.
M Davis, Lansing, USA
Actually, Obama's victory in NC was so lopsided that, even IF you count MI & FL, Obama leads with the popular vote. Hillary's finished, and she knows it - her victory speech last night sounded more like someone laying the groundwork for a gracious departure than a candidate still in the hunt.
Douglas, Chicago, USA
When Obama loses the general election to McCain, Leftists will howl "Racism," but it won't be racism that'll cause him to lose 46 states, but rather that he is far to the left of the American mainstream, as illustrated by his "Cling to" speech.
He'll be another Dimocrap Party failed elitist.
Dave Livingston, El Paso County, Colorado, USA
It is time for Barack to turn his focus into defeating John McCain. When McCain meets Obama on the debate stage, the choice will be clear: Old verses new, Bush III verses a new direction, continued alienation of the world verses a multi-nationalist face.
November's winner is already clear.
Brian, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
If it is true that Hillary wants Obama to pay off her debt before she leaves the race, I don't want her in charge of our national budget. She should have to pay for her own campaign. If she withdraws from her negative campaigning, she loses. That is pretty much all that has carried her this far.
Les, Lenexa, Kansas, USA
*...
Better drive a steak in her heart and bury her face down or she will crawl back out of the hole and America will never get to hear the last of the Clintons.
...*bert
BERT CONVY, JACKSON HOLE, WYOMING
Obama is simply unalectable. The Rev. Wright did not get traction in the Democratic primary. But it will in a general election. Obama had finally made a clear denunciation of Wright. But the connection is too strong and Obama will be too much a fringe candidate to win. The race is already over.
Chris, Bellingham, USA
Go to the end Hillary, anything can happen.. In NC for instance he carried over 90 percent of the african american vote, she carried over 60 percent of the white vote. That won't win general election for either, apparently it will get him there. Dreading 4 more republican years. please pray for USA.
Mary, Greensboro, NC, USA
Nothing less than shocking that Clinton, with all of her advantages -- money, name recognition, impressive connections, obvious intellect -- has failed to secure her party's nomination. She can consider herself very lucky that she can return to the Senate.
Keith, Berlin, Germany
If you need a doctor you're not going to turn one away because of the color of his skin. We could use a little doctorin'
glenn schaefer, holbrook, ny/ USA
I suggest that Senator Clinton stays in the race through the May 13th and 20th contests, two of which she would win (West Virginia and Kentucky) and one of which she would lose (Oregon). She can then quit the race, endorse Senator Obama, and better angle toward the Senate Majority Leader status.
Hasslington, St. Paul, USA
Obama should announce Clinton on his ticket and move on.
McCain is extremely vulnerable to a concerted Democrtat campaign.
Leigh Vernier, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia