Philip Webster, Political Editor and Russell Jenkins
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Labour recriminations over the Crewe & Nantwich by-election have started three days before polling, with supporters of Gordon Brown distancing him from the “class war” campaign that has dominated it.
As a poll last night gave the Conservatives a 13-point lead in a seat that the late Gwyneth Dunwoody won by 7,000 votes in 2005, senior ministers and officials voiced regret that attempts to depict the Tory candidate as a “toff” had backfired. The tactic prevented Labour’s candidate, Mrs Dunwoody’s daughter Tamsin, from getting her case across, they admitted.
The ComRes poll for The Independent suggests that Labour is heading for a heavy defeat. Taken between Thursday and Sunday, it put the Conservatives on 48 per cent, Labour on 35 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 12. Worse for Mr Brown, it found that only 13 per cent of people in Crewe regard him as an asset to his party, while 60 per cent see him as a liability.
An ICM poll in The Guardian last night put Labour on 27 per cent nationally and the Conservatives on 41 per cent, the worst showing for Labour since May 1987, just before Margaret Thatcher won her third election by a landslide.
The Times has been told that Mr Brown will not carry out a Cabinet reshuffle if Labour loses badly, but will treat it as an outcome that could be expected in the middle of a third term and with national polls heavily against the party. To underline the “business as usual” message, it was disclosed that Mr Brown plans to spend the Whitsun Bank Holiday weekend in Scotland with his family.
Among some Labour MPs, the knives are out for Steve McCabe, the whip and MP for Birmingham Hall Green, who was chosen by party headquarters to run the campaign. He had been associated with the disastrous Dunfermline & West Fife by-election in 2006, in which the Liberal Democrats took the seat from Labour in Mr Brown’s backyard.
At the same time, Mr Brown’s allies are braced for “ultra-Blairites” to make a fresh attack on his leadership on Friday if the result turns out badly.
In London, strategists say that the campaign became “bogged down” with the attacks on Edward Timpson, a barrister from the shoe business family, as a member of the upper classes. “But having made their point, they should have admitted it was a stunt and moved on. Instead, we have been diverted into this row over whether Labour is now for or against aspiration,” one said.
The acrimony between the parties deepened last night after it was claimed that campaign posters had been ripped down by rival activists. Tory sources claimed that two men had been stopped by police and found with “piles of our posters” in a vehicle.
Labour officials then countered with a claim that they had filed a police complaint after witnessing people in a white van ripping down their posters. Police would not confirm last night that they were investigating the claims.
Mr Brown and the Cabinet are desperate to avoid the Crewe result sparking a “nightmare” weekend similar to that which followed the local elections. A senior strategist said: “After the locals it was right to have a serious inquest and take action because of what the country was telling us. That is why we acted on the 10p tax. But there will be no repeat of the internal soul-searching. Crewe was always going to be tough in midterm and commentators who pretend that we should be expecting to win this seat at this time are being dishonest.”
Even so, it is clear that Mr Brown is ready for another difficult Thursday night and Friday. Senior ministers do not expect any move to be made against him and believe that he must be given time to recover from the 10p debacle. The Commons will be in recess when the Crewe result is announced in the early hours of Friday and Labour MPs will have a week to calm down. But ministers say that if Labour’s position has not improved by next year’s local elections, all bets would be off.
Labour’s backroom campaign team remained unrepentant last night about portraying Mr Timpson as a “Tory toff”. They insisted that it has played well on the doorstep in Crewe.
One strategist said: “It has been a real focus of the campaign whether Edward Timpson is fit to to be an MP for the people of Crewe & Nantwich.
“We have made no apologies for the stuff we have done regarding making it clear that Tamsin Dunwoody is one of us, somebody who understands the concerns of local residents and asking the question whether somebody with Mr Timpson’s background can do the same. He tries to paint himself as a local person but he is a world away.”
Earlier Ms Dunwoody was anxious to emphasise the class distinctions between herself and Mr Timpson. “The difference between us is that I do not have a £53 million family fortune supporting me. I do not have a £1½ million mansion. I am just a single, unemployed mother of five fighting hard for a job.”
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Adopting gimmicks rather than offering sound, thought-provoking policies is a clear sign of incompetence, lack of vision and arrogance.
Most people's vote will be biased towards the most 'sane' campaign. I mean, it isn't exactly rocket science is it!?
We vote for people who aspire confidence.
Ian, lancashire, uk
While blaming the Country's woes on the "global economic downturn" they try to hide the fact that they have become little more than a Parliamentary dictatorship. No mandate from the people and hanging onto power at any cost.
At least Robert Mugabee had a general election.
Kevin, Ferrara, Italy
It is odd to hear a daughter who has been parachuted into a constituency to succeed her mother as MP complaining about her opponent enjoying the benefits of a family inheritance.
Peter Harris, Godalming, Surrey
Extraordinary! Or perhaps not for the Labour candidate Ms Dunwoody to emphasise she is a single mother of 5 who does not work (when she is clearly able to).
Our taxes are paying to support this clearly intelligent and capable women and her children who does not work.
Extraordinary!
Jeff B, Addlestone, UK
So does Tamsin Dunwoody live in a semi detached house on a council estate in Pembrokeshire and did she go to a normal comprehensive school. Their are more Toffs in the Labour party then the Tories. What a disgusting campaign, don't they understand that the British public have found them out and know that they are obsessed with money for themselves, look at Blair, Prescott and Levy.
dave reardon, Nuneaton,
I think it laughable that people in this day and age actually think that having had a comfortable upbringing and a good education should make you somehow unfit to govern. That's just the politics of envy.
Stu, Leicester,
"I'm just a single, unemployed mother of five fighting hard for a job". So it is the job she wants not a feeling of wanting to be of service to the public.
William , London,
Let's hope Gordon Brown's Whitsun break in Scotland is a one-way ticket.
Brian Roberts , Plymouth, UK
OH God , no. Please let Labour win , I'm not sure I could stand another Sunday of Gordon repairing the damage on the telly.
Donny B, EDINBURGH,
This government is dead and needs to be buried. Can't you smell its rotting corpse?
clive, dartford,
Wow Tamsin Dunwoody is "one of us"? How working class can you be with a Barness for a grandmother. Makes the Queen positively chavvy.
Mike, Middlesbrough,
Dunwoody's mother was a giant steeped in honesty & enjoyed respect across the political divide as someone with integrity & principles like Tony Benn.
This DHSS claimant will ruin her mother's legacy. I am guessing that she sees the Westminster gravy train as her way to the toff monied class.
Belarmino Vaz, Cheltenham, United Kingdom
Labour Who! GB Who! - does anyone recognise them any more.
YT, London, UK
I hope Labour are so hammered in this by-election that they never recover. Perhaps we can then create a new political party that honours its name. Yes that's right...... the 'LABOUR' party. This lot represent no-one.
judy, liverpool, england
Labour hates indivuduals to show initiative and to be successful from their own efforts. This is why they are running such a negative campaign in Crewe.
Their egomainia and desire to control everything and everybody will be their downfall - and not a moment too soon either!
Peter, London,
Whoever thought up the 'Tory toff ' campaign to promote a single unemployed mother of 5 should be a candidate him or herself,
for idiot of the year that is.
Martin, Reading, UK
New Labour will say and do anything to cling to power.
Trouble is we no longer believe in them as a Government and are no longer taken in by their lies.
Stephen, Withington, UK
Labour is dead in the water and GB knows this really !!!!
Ian Payne, WALSALL,
I agree with Roger, and I say that as a Labour supporter. The party has been in power for 11 years and instead of running on its record in government, it is reduced to insulting the opposition. The choice of Tamsin Dunwoody as the candidate also insults the electorate.
Roy, Bristol,
I would prefer it if Ms Dunwoody got an actual job instead of wasting my tax paying money on the myriad of benefits, she no doubt claims; instead of swanning around and trying to get elected.
Chantel, Wales,
A single mother of 5 without a job? Well qualified for public office then........
Doug Bates, St. Albans,
The way that the labour party has behaved during this by election campaign is not the way that I expect a party in government to behave. It is too late now for senior ministers and officials to try and distance themselves from what has happened. They should have taken action to stop it at the start.
John MOORE, Paphos, Cyprus
Politics has always been the systematic organisation of hatreds. Labour simply harnesses prejudice for party political ends.
That is very distinct from government of the people by the people for the people. It is more like government of the people by the Labour party for the Labour party.
Ubi, Edinburgh, UK
Bill has it about right.
The time to be ruled by a rich lawyer born with a silver spoon in his mouth and a well connected network at hand to help over life's little difficulties is long past , but what else is there for the people of Crewe?
Abstaining seems the far better choice all around..
Rob , Essex, England
so now you can get job seekers allowance to try and become a pollie , wish i had known that, what a rort!!
5 kids , unemployed and a single mum.... the very thing we should be trying to stamp out! she has already sold her soul by being one of the Nulabour employees!
alan, london, england
I'm starting to wonder if there is a single thing that Labour can't and won't mess up completely . Presumably not .
Benzo, Nr Chelmsford,
We have made no apologies for the stuff we have done regarding making it clear that Tamsin Dunwoody is one of us, somebody who understands the concerns of local residents." What a laugh... the Labour government are totally out of touch with the vast majority of ordinary people.
Andrew Brown, derby, UK
No expert on Crewe apart from a few visits to Gresty Rd, but I would have thought that, in Cheshire of all places, an English 'toff' would have the edge over a welsh candidate.
Strange place to play the class card methinks.
james, burnley,
Let's see. The Tories haven't won a by-election since Julius Caesar was a nipper, and Labour has a 7000 majority to defend, but Labour are now reduced to pretending that a loss is only to be expected because it's "tough in mid-term". That's pathetic. Labour is becoming the "excuses" party.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
I remain astonished that senior Labour figures, together with all their expensive advisors and strategists, ever thought the purile "Tory toff" campaign would be a success.
It highlights the kind of clueless stupidity that now rules Labour. And they have the nerve to suggest that Timpson may not be fit to be an MP!
Chris K, Cheltenham, UK
It is clear from their campaign that the Labour party has no vision and certainly no ideas to offer the electorate, hence their pathetic class based campaign. Labour now needs a long period in opposition to try to work out what it is for, because at the moment it certainly is not obvious.
Roger, swindon,
Never mind Moyra Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsey can return to home in Pembrokeshire after Thursday releeved that she will not have to commute from Pemrokeshire
Edward, Newbury, England
"Mr Brown plans to spend the Whitsun Bank Holiday weekend in Scotland with his family."
He sounds like Nero fiddling while the Labour Party burns.
Ian, London, UK
She is single, unemployed and a mother five????
There is a whiff of reckless abandon in there somewhere.
Fit to be an MP? I think not.
Bill, Suzhou, China