Mark Harris
The man, the films, those blondes. Free DVD collection starting this Sunday
The end of the internet is nigh - and in less than three years, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Can it be true? The problem is that the world is running out of internet addresses. More than 85% of the available addresses have already been allocated and the OECD predicts we will have run out completely by early 2011.
These aren’t the normal web addresses you type into your browser’s window, and which were recently freed up by Icann (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers), the body responsible for allocating domain names, to allow thousands of new internet domains ending in, for instance, .london or .xxx.
Beneath these commonsense names lie numerical internet protocol (IP) addresses that denote individual devices connected to the internet. These form the foundation for all online communications, from e-mail and web pages to voice chat and streaming video.
When the current IP address scheme was introduced in 1981 there were fewer than 500 computers connected to the internet. Its founders could be forgiven for thinking that allowing for a potential 4 billion would last for ever. However, less than 30 years later we’re rapidly running out. Every day thousands of new devices ranging from massive web servers down to individual mobile phones go online and gobble up more combinations and permutations.
“Shortages are already acute in some regions,” says the OECD. “The situation is critical for the future of the internet economy.” As addresses run dry we will all feel the pinch: internet speeds will drop and new connections and services (such as internet phone calling) will either be expensive or simply impossible to obtain. You can see a countdown clock to this digital doomsday, recalculated daily, at penrose.uk6x.com.
Just as everyone knows the solution to peak oil (use less of it), the solution to the IP address shortage is equally obvious: upgrade to new addresses that can accommodate our hunger for online connectivity. Such a system, called IPv6 (www.ipv6.org ), was agreed more than a decade ago, providing enough addresses for billions upon billions of devices as well as improving internet phone and video calls, and possibly even helping to end e-mail spam.
Unfortunately - and again like peak oil - just because we know what’s good for us that doesn’t mean we’ll do it. The OECD notes that “immediate costs are associated with deployment of IPv6, whereas many benefits are long-term and depend on a critical mass adopting it”. The problem is that the new system is not really compatible with the internet today. If, for example, Google wants to support IPv6, it will need to build a whole new IPv6 web service, complete with new domain names, servers and bandwidth.
And so the internet lurches on, patched with technology that may help it stagger through a few more years, but doomed to slow down unless big players such as Google, BT and governments start investing now.
Maybe at a philosophical level it’ll be a good thing if the internet packs up. We will all be able to shut down our computers and forget the 24/7 economy. I read recently that Stone Age man, with all his hunting and gathering and other chores, still worked only 22 hours a week.
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I agree we had the sacre in the year 2000 nothing has changed since we just need to be more creative thats all
Ryan Kempf, Bretzville, USA
We had a similar "terrible" scare with the 2K-bug.
The world is not going to end as yet.
Manfred, Sydney, Australia
Dear Phil de Buquet,
Yes, there are such people. They are called by a number of labels, i.e., liberals, leftists, marxists, etc.
Forrest, Jacksonville, USA
Companies are already converting to IPv6. More and more enterprise level apps already support them. The switch is not really as difficult as the article lays it out to be, since apps can be IPv6 'aware' without having to completely recode
Glen , Denver, CO, USA
long ago phone numbers were 4 digits long, and when the ran out did phones dry up and go away,... no
they added more digits, and more phones. IPv6 is doing just that, instead of 4 octets of numbers in a standard IP (aka IPv4) you will now have 6 octets IPv6, and many more IPdevices
will, reno, usa
As a Yank who has great respect for the Magna Carta, Common Law, Shakespeare, the British "stiff upper lip" and Churchillian resolve, I am amazed at what politically-correct alarmist weenies you seem to have become. It appears that you have conflated Malthus and techno-babble. Twaddle I say, Twaddle
Steven Gomprecht, Lodi, NY , USA
Don't worry Global Warming will have killed us before the number of internet addresses runs out.
Got to hand it to the Brittish press another day another catastrophy is looming. Maybe Brittain should be renamed to the Peoples Politically Correct, Global Warming Republic of Chicken Little.
Phil McCrakin, New York, USA
IPV6 has been around for a several years. No, there will be no end to the Internet! And Al Gore did NOT invent the Internet. After it was running between some universities and gov. labs (it was a defense dept. system), Al Gore and other politicians voted for the U.S. gov. (NSF) to fund it. Got that?
Prof. Carl Looney, Reno, USA
I may not be THE sharpest knife in the drawer, but I think I have enough understanding about words to know the difference between something coming to an end and there being no room for more. This person is nothing but a fear mongerer. I am sure it was Al Gore who invented the IPv6. He's the man!
Randy, Palm Coast, FL, USA
Cisco routers, Windows, UNIX, etc have has IPv6 functionality for many years. The only show stoppers I see are with my little Linksys,6 to 4 gateways, and for networks to adopt it.
If Cox Cable wants to assign me a IPv6, I'm happy to help. They haven't.
B R S, Phoenix, USA
Where is Al Gore when we need him!!!!
Ron, Sierra Vista,
I believe we have to look onto use the unique, extra-huge domains' name to expand more capacity and get to the strict policies for registrating new domains..... And secondly, We explore more and more Free-Web Domain Developing to load more over the singal Domain I.e: geocities.com and etc.
Mirza Adeel Sami, Rabwah, Pakistan
Let's tell them the Internet is going to end so we can create a whole new one and everyone will have to come to us if they want to be on the Internet.
It amazes me that you cna get away with this stuff this day and age.
This is an attempt to tap into the vast revenues on the Internet, hijack
Larry, Las Vegas, USA
There are certainly some issues with legacy network equipment. But it is correct that the solution is in place.
Dominic Melfi, Racine, Wi, USA
Okay, Let me get this. The solution for peak oil is to use less , but the solution for ip addresses is a solution that increases ip addresses, increasing supply to meet demand. The solution for oil is increase supply, and alternatives, like nuclear power (electricity for your precious computers).
Mark Harritt, Sierra Vista, AZ, USA
Wow an article about the Internet that shows complete ignorance and a false alarmist.
Yes it will be a bit of a pain for everyone to move to IPV6 but hardly a doomsday. It won't even be all that expensive as it has already been pointed out most everything supports IPV6.
J Kinsley, York, US
IPv4=on the way out
IPv6=128-bit addressing scheme possible of supporting roughly 3.4x10^38 unique addresses. So no, as the journalist put it, the internet is not on the way out. For more information, check out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv6
or
http://www.ipv6.org/
Thank You.
Gil Nims, Aurora, USA
This is as about as much of an issue as the Y2K bug. Yes, had nothing been done to ameliorate the situation, Y2K would indeed have been a problem. But the necessary work was done, and Y2K was a damp squib. Most modern IP stacks support IPv6 transparently. Much ado about nothing.
David Gillies, San Jose, Costa Rica
Yes phil, and I don't know why.
Ray Belanger, Las Vegas,Nv., USA
What evidence do you cite to uphold your statement of:
"As addresses run dry we will all feel the pinch: internet speeds will drop and new connections and services (such as internet phone calling) will either be expensive or simply impossible to obtain" ?
How would this affect speed?
Derryl, Pacific Palisades, CA, USA
This will get have as much effect on the world as the Y2K issue.
In the end, very little. Yet for the next 3 yrs, we'll hear nothing but our impending technological doom. Does anyone truly think that companies & governments that literally *depend* on the internet are going to lazily let it crumble?
thorn, Cincinnati,
Here's an idea: Use the money that Al Gore, et al, plan to make buying and selling "carbon offsets", which, by the way do nothing to solve any environmental problems either real or imaginary, to upgrade the internet and we'll still have billions left over to solve other problems facing mankind.
Glenn, Atlanta, GA, USA
How wonderful. I was told several times in the 1990's I would never survive in the 21st. century without the internet. Now it looks like it is the internet that is the one that wont survive the 21st. century. Go figure.
Dennis Mundorf, Clarkrange, TN
Isn't it absolutely amazing ! Are there people who make lists of every disaster which could befall humanity and when news gets a bit slack, pores over the list to find one which hasn't been revealed before. ? Its a hard life for journalists searching for new disasters to frighten the peasants
Phil de Buquet, newport,